Betting the First Round of the 2009-10 NBA Playoffs
The NBA's second season is now upon us and bettors are faced with a completely different game than occurs during the regular season. Players, as well as teams, who played a bit loose on the defensive end, will pick up the defensive intensity. While it seems like games are always going under the total in the playoffs, the reality is that about 57 percent of the games have gone under the total in recent years. Not a bad winning percentage for such a simple concept.Looking at the eight series match-ups in the first round of the NBA playoffs, there are very few that seem to have any potential for an upset. Cleveland, Orlando and Atlanta shouldn't meet much resistance in the East, while the Lakers and Suns should be able to breeze in the West. The Atlanta and Phoenix series could have been a bit different had Andrew Bogut and Brandon Roy not been injured.
Series Wagers
The Celtics are -175 over the Heat in the East, and I'd lean for the old men in green to make one final stand, but am not about to lay that type of number. If Miami earns a split in the first two games, I may look to take Boston when the odds are more advantageous.In the West, I'll take shots on Utah +170 and San Antonio +145, but will likely buy them back if I can get Denver or Dallas at plus money during the series.
There are no clear-cut trends for home or away teams or favorites vs. underdogs for the playoffs, so it's best to take each game individually.
The first round of the NBA playoffs is generally tough for series bets, as the top teams are usually prohibitive favorites. The lone exception this year is No. 2 Dallas against the No. 7 Spurs.
Just because it's the playoffs, you are not required to play each game. History has shown us that if you don't have real opinion on a game and still want to make a wager, the under is probably the best way to go. Still, I'd be a bit leery of taking the under in games where a key player is missing, as it's difficult to tell what the team will do in response. (Will Milwaukee pick up the tempo with Bogut out?)
Pick and choose your sports carefully in the first round, as there is plenty more basketball to be played.
