Inside ACC College Basketball

Inside ACC College Basketball

This is the first in a series of college basketball betting articles where we'll look specifically at conference play and any patterns that have developed regarding straight bets and in totals.
What we'll look at are regular season results from the past five years and stick with the basic formula that we use, such as looking at home and away favorites in different point spread groups, as well as different ranges of totals.

The Atlantic Coast Conference

The ACC has traditionally been one of the powerhouse conferences in the country, sending a number of teams to the NCAA Tournament each year. Teams such as Duke and North Carolina ensure the ACC receives plenty of coverage on the national level and it is widely regarded as one of the top conferences in the country on an annual basis.

At first glance, nothing really stands out in conference play, as ACC favorites were 232-225-16 ATS between the 20006-07 and 2010-11 seasons and totals were 228-238-7, giving a slight advantage to the under.

Home favorites were 166-162-15 and away favorites were 66-63-1.

Point Spread Breakdown

Now we'll look at home and away favorites in various spread groupings:
Home favorites of 2.5 points or less: 26-23-2
Home favorites of 3 to 5.5 points: 49-47-5
Home favorites of 6 to 9.5 points: 45-52-4
Home favorites of 10 to 14.5 points: 26-20-3
Home favorites of 15 to 20 points: 15-14-1
Home favorites of 20.5 or more points: 5-6-0

There is really nothing that we can point to and say that we have something worth keeping an eye on. There are only two situations that would have produced small flat-bet profits, away underdogs between 6 and 9.5 points and home favorites between 10 and 14.5 points, but they are not worth tracking. So, let's move on to the road favorites:
Road favorites of 2.5 points or less: 25-18-0
Road favorites of 3 to 5.5 points: 16-18-0
Road favorites of 6 to 9.5 points: 16-20-1
Road favorites of 10 to 14.5 points: 5-6-0
Road favorites of 15 to 20 points: 3-1-0
Road favorites of 20.5 or more points: 1-0-0

Again, not a whole lot, but we do have a few things worth looking at, such as the small road favorites and the large road favorites.

Totals Breakdown

124.5 or fewer points: 0-3-0
125 to 129.5 points: 13-7-0
130 to 134.5 points: 34-18-2
135 to 139.5 points: 48-41-2
140 to 144.5 points: 38-58-2
145 to 149.5 points: 45-61-0
150 to 154.5 points: 28-20-1
155 to 159.5 points: 10-20-0
160 or more points: 12-9-0

Now we're getting somewhere, as there are definite trends regarding the lower-numbered totals going over and the higher numbers seeing the games go under.

Even though there are several exceptions in the number groups, it looks best to go over in games with a total of 139.5 and under in those games with a total of 140 or more.

Following that simple rule would have seen us go 95-69-4 (57.9%) on our over bets and 168-133-3 (55.8%) on our under bets, which would be a combined 263-202-7, which translates to 56.6%.

As with all of the trends that we look at, it's worth mentioining that just because something has happened in the past is no guarantee that it will happen in the future, even though it often does. Either way, it's worth keeping an eye on during ACC conference games.