The Best NCAA Basketball Conference Trends
When I first wrote Inside ACC Basketball and Inside Big East Basketball last week, the plan was to have a look at all of the major college conferences and the trends that have developed over the past five seasons worth of conference play.Unfortunately, there was nothing of note for a number of conferences and to write about them would have simply been a waste of your time and mine. So what I've done is take the most noteworthy trends from all the different conferences and we'll look at the three biggest here, along with our usual breakdown to see if there are instances where the trend is more pronounced.
Mountain West Road Favorites
Mountain West road favorites were a solid 67-43-2 aginst the spread between 2006-07 and the 2010-2011 regular seasons. Looking at our traditional breakdowns would show the following:Road favorites of 2.5 points or less: 16-8-0
Road favorites of 3 to 5.5 points: 13-17-1
Road favorites of 6 to 9.5 points: 21-13-1
Road favorites of 10 to 14.5 points: 15-5-0
Road favorites of 15 to 20 points: 2-0-0
While Mountain West road favorites have been excellent wagers overall, the bigger favorites have fared even better, with double-digit favorites an impressive 17-5 ATS in the five-year span, making them something you definitely want to keep an eye on in the 2011-12 season.
Metro Atlantic Home Favorites
Metro Atlantic home favorites were a dismal 117-179-6 against the spread during the five-year study, which is just 39.5 percent. Looking at our breakdown:Home favorites of 2.5 points or less: 16-24-0
Home favorites of 3 to 5.5 points: 33-54-1
Home favorites of 6 to 9.5 points: 26-48-0
Home favorites of 10 to 14.5 points: 32-37-3
Home favorites of 15 to 20 points: 8-13-2
Home favorites of 20.5 or more points: 2-3-0
Metro Atlantic home favorites have been losing propositions in all of the different spread groupings, but have performed a bit better against the largesr spreads, going 42-53-5, which is still a disappointing 44.2 percent.
Single digit Metro Atlantic home favorites were 75-126-1, which is a putrid 37.3 percent against the number, making it the strongest conference trend over the past five seasons.
Big 12 Home Favorites
Big 12 Conference home favorites were a healthy 184-142-3 (56.4%) against the spread over the five-year study. Looking at our breakdown:Home favorites of 2.5 points or less: 29-16-0
Home favorites of 3 to 5.5 points: 40-30-2
Home favorites of 6 to 9.5 points: 51-34-0
Home favorites of 10 to 14.5 points: 42-37-0
Home favorites of 15 to 20 points: 19-17-1
Home favorites of 20.5 or more points: 3-8-0
The smaller Big 12 favorites definitely out-performed the double-digit favorites, as home favorites of 9.5 or less were a solid 120-80-2 (60%) against the spread. Due in part to the poor record of favorites greater than 20 points, double-digit home favorites were just 64-62 against the spread, which is a losing proposition.
So once again, we will look for those games in which the point spread is in the single digits.
This article focused solely on conference trends against the spread. If you want to see which conferences have the biggest trends in relation to totals, read The Best NCAA Basketball Conference Totals Trends where you will get a complete breakdown.
