The Best NCAA Basketball Conference Totals Trends
This article is a companion article to The Best NCAA Basketball Conference Trends.While that article focused on sides, this article will look solely at totals as we look to see which conferences have given us the most decided totals trends between the 2006-07 and 2010-11 regular seasons.
Summit League
The Summit League traditionally doesn't garner much interest from fans or bettors, but maybe it should. In the five-year study, the Summit League saw a high percentage of its games go over the total, as the over was a solid 85-61-2 (58.2%) during that time span.Looking at a breakdown of different total ranges would show the following:
Less than 125 points: 7-10-1
125 to 129.5 points: 3-4-0
130 to 134.5 points: 11-6-0
135 to 139.5 points: 14-9-0
140 to 144.5 points: 26-16-1
145 to 149.5 points: 15-6-0
150 to 154.5 points: 5-6-0
155 to 159.5 points: 2-1-0
160 or more points: 4-3-1
One reason for the low number of games is that the Summit League did not have many games on the board until the 2009-10 season, but the games have been solid wagers, especially if you look at those games where the total is 130 and above.
Big Sky Conference
The Big Sky Conference is another that flies under the radar a bit despite having some quality teams and the conference usually manages several upsets of the big name schools each season. For bettors, the conference is another that typically goes over the total in regular season conference play, as the over is 192-147-1 (56.6%) in the five-year span.Looking at our breakdown:
Less than 125 points: 8-3-0
125 to 129.5 points: 26-22-0
130 to 134.5 points: 44-37-0
135 to 139.5 points: 51-33-0
140 to 144.5 points: 25-19-1
145 to 149.5 points: 17-19-0
150 to 154.5 points: 8-6-0
155 to 159.5 points: 7-4-0
160 or more points: 5-5-0
Unlike the Summit League, the Big Sky Conference has performed better with lower totals, as least as far as betting the over goes. Games with a posted total of 144.5, or less, are 154-114-1 (57.5%) to the over, while games with a total of 145, or greater, are 37-34 (52.1%) to the over.
Ivy League Unders
The Ivy League players are known more for their brains than their physical skills and to an extent that shows up on the basketball court. Not only do the Ivy League games go under the total the majority of the time, it's noteworthy to notice how few games have high totals, meaning it's pretty much known these teams aren't going to be able to run up and down the court and score at will.Overall, Ivy League games go under the total 54.6 percent of the time, which is profitable accross the board, but if we look at our breakdown we'll see one range where the games have a higher tendency to go under:
Less than 125 points: 36-41-0
125 to 129.5 points: 16-30-1
130 to 134.5 points: 23-27-0
135 to 139.5 points: 22-24-2
140 to 144.5 points: 19-20-1
145 to 149.5 points: 8-5-0
150 to 154.5 points: 0-1-0
155 to 159.5 points: 0-1-0
160 or more points: 0-0-0
While the Ivy League is 124-149-4 to the under overall, those games with a total of 129.5 or less are 52-71-1, which is just 42.3 percent over, so we definitely want to look for those games with low totals.
The stats for this article, as well as Inside ACC Basketball and Inside Big East Basketball were discovered using the Stat Attack College Basketball 2011-12 program and is just one way you can use the whole line of programs to your advantage.
