Odds to Win the 2011 AFC Title
So far this preseason, we've looked at the odds on how many games each individual team will win for both the AFC and the NFC.We then looked at the odds for winning each individual division, beginning with the AFC and then moving to the NFC.
Now, we'll move on to the odds on winning the American Football Conference. Odds on winning the NFC can be found here and next week we'll look at the odds to win the Super Bowl.
Naturally, we'll find much more generouds odds in betting on a team to win the AFC title, as opposed to winning the division title for the simple fact that a team has to beat out 15 others to win the conference, as opposed to just three others to win the division title. As the gambling saying goes, "the greater the risk the greater the reward," which is as it should be.
All numbers are posted with the Money line so make sure you have an understanding of how that works.
Odds to Win the AFC Title
New England +325San Diego +625
Pittsburgh +625
Baltimore +645
NY Jets +645
Indianapolis +1015
Houston +1015
Kansas City +1815
Miami +2050
Oakland +3050
Jacksonville +3050
Tennessee +3250
Denver +5250
Buffalo +6050
Cleveland +6050
Cincinnati +8050
The New England Patriots are the favorites and it's hard to go against them. The only real competition they'll face in their division comes from the New York Jets, as Buffalo and Miami should both be on the outside looking in.
The odds on the Jets are a bit on the low side, considering they will likely make the playoffs as a wildcard team, which would have them on the road once the playoffs begin.
As we mentioned when we looked at the odds to win the AFC divisions, the Colts and the Texans were at the same odds to win the conference title and they have held steady. The oddsmakers are either a bit more concerned with Peyton Manning's injury problems than the Colts have let on, or they are more impressed with the Texans than most people. My guess is that they believe Manning's health is more of a question mark that is being let on.
The Steelers and the Ravens are expected to slug it out for the division title, so it's no surprise to see the two teams matched pretty evenly as far as the odds go for winning the conference. The division should be a two-horse race and the division champion will be at home to begin the playoffs at the very least.
The Chargers are the class of their division and the odds increase at a steady pace once you get beyond San Diego.
Looking For Value
There are two different ways of looking at futures-type wagers. The first is to simply go with whichever team you believe is going to win. In that case, the New England Patriots would be the logical team of choice for most people.The second theory, and the one I subscribe to, is to wager on the team, or teams, you believe offer the best value for your betting dollar. These teams don't win as often as the favorites, but when they do, you cash a winning ticket for a much higher return.
With that said, the team I believe offers the best value is the San Diego Chargers. The first step to winning the conference title is simply making the playoffs and San Diego looks to have the easiest time of all the logical contenders when it comes to winning its division.
The Chargers should be able to win enough games to give them home field advantage for at least several games, with the possible exception of the title game. That should loom big as the playoffs move on.
Remember to shop as many different sportsbooks as you can to look for the best lines. The above lines are from The Greek.
