NFL Conference Championship Trends When looking at trends that have developed in the NFL Conference Championship games, it's important to remember that you have a relatively small sample size of games to study. For this reason, we'll look at trends that have developed in the NFL Conference Championship games from both long-term and short-term.
We'll look at all the games since the start of the 1985 season and then again from the 2001 season to see how the trends are holding up. We'll also look at the four teams playing in the 2011-12 Conference Championships, along with the spreads and totals in those games.
Before we get started, we'll look at the current lines for the conference championship games of Jan. 22, 2012. The 49ers are favored by 2.5 points over the New York Giants and the total is 42, while the New England Patriots are favored by 7 over the Baltimore Ravens with a total of 50.5.
Long-Term Conference Championship Trends
Going back to the 1985 season that was made famous by the Chicago Bears, William Perry and the Super Bowl Shuffle, we'd see that home teams are 33-19 straight up in conference championship games, but just 27-25 against the spread.The games have had a tendency to go over the total, as the over is 29-22-1 in that span.
Home favorites were 32-13 straight up and 26-19 against the spread. Home favorites of 2.5 points or less were 1-0 both straight up and ATS, while home favorites of 6 to 9.5 points were 10-5 both straight up and against the spread. Each time the 6 to 9.5 favorite failed to cover the spread, they lost the game outright.
In games with a total between 40 and 44.5, the over is 10-8, while in games with a total of 50 or more points, the over is 3-1.
The New York Giants are 4-0 straight up and ATS in conference championship games, while three of their four games have gone under the total. The 49ers are 3-4 straight up and against the spread and have seen four of their seven games go under the total.
The Baltimore Ravens are 1-3 straight up and against the spread, with three of their four games going over the total, while New England is 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread. Three of the Patriots' seven games have gone over the total.
Short-Term Trends
Looking at the past 10 years worth of conference championship games shows us that home teams are 13-7 straight up, but just 10-10 against the spread. Home favorites are 13-5 straight up and 10-8 against the spread.Home favorites of 2.5 points and less are again 1-0 straight up and against the spread, with home favorites of 6 to 9.5 points both 3-1 straight up and against the spread.
There has been a higher tendency for games to go over the total in recent years, as the over is 15-4-1, including a 6-1 record in those games with a total between 40 and 44.5 and 1-0 in games with a total of 50 and higher.
The Giants are 1-0 straight up and against the spread with their game going over the total, while the 49ers are making their first conference championship appearance since the 1997 season.
The Ravens are 0-1 both straight straight up and against the spread, with their game going over the total, while the Patriots are 4-1 straight up, 3-2 against the spread and have seen three of their five games go over the total.
The trends point to the games going over the total, but remember the sample size is small and these types of trends are at their best when you have more games to work with.
