League Championship Series Breakdown
Baseball's respective League Championship Series will get underway in the next few days, so we'll delve into some past history and look at trends that have developed over the past 12 years.For those interested in looking ahead to the World Series and the betting trends that have developed there, read World Series Trends.
Before we look at the trends that have developed in the League Championship Series, it's important for bettors to understand the money line since teams with a losing record in a certain situation can still be profitable when they are underdogs, which is something to keep in mind when looking at some of the records. Likewise a winning record when betting favorites can turn into a losing proposition because of the odds.
Totals, which is where some of the most obvious trends have developed, are also a bit different than those who only wager on football or basketball are used to, as they may also involve the money line, so if you're new to baseball totals I would read Understanding Totals and pay close attention to the section on baseball.
League Championship Series Team Trends
Since the 1999 season, home teams are 76-61, with National League teams posting a 38-29 record, while American League teams are 38-32. National League favorites are 40-31, while American League are just 38-36 over that time span.Where we start to see a pattern beginning is when we look at left-handed starting pitchers. Southpaws are pretty much break-even overall, going 40-41 overall, but are a healthy 24-13 when favored, but a dismal 15-28 when they were the underdog. One game was even, which is why there is a one-game discrepency in the overall record. The left-handed starter won that one, as well.
Lefties have been pretty much the same at home (18-20) as on the road (22-21) but if we look closer, we'd see that home favorites are 15-10, which was only break-even due to the odds, but a horrible 2-10 as a home underdog. As away favorites, left-handers were a strong 9-3 (+5.25 units) and 13-18 as away underdogs.
League Championship Series Totals Trends
In all League Championship Series games, the total is 64-69-4, meaning 64 games have gone over, 69 have gone under and four have landed right on the number. The totals have been pretty consistent, as National League games are 31-34-2 and American League games are 33-35-2.
What has happened, however, is that the games have not followed the expected patterns. Games which are expected to be low scoring, have had a tendency to go over the total, while games though to be high scoring have generally gone under the total.
We'll look at totals in three ways - overall, National League and American League against a range of posted totals:
Overall:
6 or less: 2-0
6.5 to 7: 4-4-1
7.5 to 8: 23-13-2
8.5 to 9: 21-34-1
9.5 or more: 14-18
National League:
6 or less: 2-0
6.5 to 7: 4-4-1
7.5 to 8: 15-10-1
8.5 to 9: 7-13
9.5 or more: 3-7
American League:
6 or less: 0-0
6.5 to 7: 0-0
7.5 to 8: 8-3-1
8.5 to 9: 14-21-1
9.5 or more: 11-11
Because the American League is a higher-scoring league, we have to adjust what we consider an expected high-scoring or low-scoring game between the two. In the National League, anything 8.5 or higher can be considered high scoring, and we see these games have gone 10-20, falling under the total twice as often as not.
In the American League, a total of 8 or less can be considered low-scoring, yet these games have gone over the total slightly more than 70-percent of the time.
Essentially, by going against the grain, which is never a bad idea in sports betting, you would be winning at a solid clip.
