World Series Betting Trends
The Fall Classic is definitely the biggest baseball betting bonanza of the year. Not will regular baseball bettors be involved, but plenty of casual bettors will making their first appearance of the baseball betting season. In addition, many people will get involved in various types of office pools, with the World Series Box Pool the most popular of the bunch.When the public gets involved in a betting opportunity, the oddsmakers do give that a bit of consideration in setting their lines, although not quite as much as many people give them credit for. But what does happen is that the additional money being wagered makes it easier for the wiseguys to get down larger sums of money without creating such a large imbalance of the sportsbook's ledger. (Many sportsbooks will let you wager $25,000 on a Monday Night Football game in which they have thousands of total wagers, but try to bet the same amount on a football game between Arkansas State and Louisiana-Monroe, in which the sportsbook has 100 bets, and you'll be told to take a hike.)
Because baseball betting involves the money line teams with a losing record in a certain situation can still be profitable when they are underdogs, which is something to keep in mind when looking at some of the records.
Totals are also a bit different than those who only wager on football or basketball are used to, as they may also involve the money line, so if you're new to baseball totals I would read Understanding Totals and pay close attention to the section on baseball.
World Series Trends
When it comes to betting the World Series, betting the home team has been the way to go, as teams playing in front of the home faithful are a solid 41-21 since 1999. Part of that is likely due to the team being more familiar with the rules that will be used, primarily the designated hitter or having the pitcher bat, depending on which league's team is at home.Home favorites are a strong 33-14, while home underdogs are 8-7.
National League home teams are 19-13, which breaks down to 12-7 when favored and 7-6 as a home dog, while American League teams are 21-7 as home favorites and 1-1 as home underdogs.
There has been a slight shifting of the winds over the past five years, as American League home teams are 7-5, while National League teams are 9-4 at home.
Left-handed pitchers are 12-7 at home, including 11-5 as home favorites and 1-2 as home dogs. But left-handers are 16-8 as favorites and the favorite is 10-2 in games featuring two left-handed starters. Due to that 10-2 record, left-handers are a poor 4-16 as underdogs.
World Series Totals Trends
Totals in the World Series have taken on a pattern similar to those found in the League Championship Series where games with low totals have had a tendency to go over, while games with higher totals have typically gone under.Totals in all games are 25-36, meaning 25 games have gone over and 36 have went under the posted total and we'll look at the totals have fared against a range of numbers:
6 and under: 1-0
6.5 to 7: 7-3
7.5 to 8: 5-15
8.5 to 9: 8-10-1
9.5 and higher: 4-8
What the little chart shows us is that in games where the total was 6.5 or 7, there have been seven games that went over the total and three that went under, while in games with a total of 7.5 or 8, there were five games which went over and 15 that went under.
If you had bet over in games with a total of 7 or less you would have gone 8-3, while if you bet under in games with a total of 7.5 or higher, you would have went 33-17-1, so it looks like a good strategy to bet over in what should be low-scoring games and to bet under in games expected to see plenty of runs.
Have fun and good luck.
