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2012-13 NBA Betting Trends


Updated January 11, 2013

2012-13 NBA Betting Trends

In this article we'll take a look at different point spread and total groupings to see if any substantial trends have established themselves. Data is current through Jan. 7, 2013.

So far during the 2012-13 NBA regular season, favorites were 362-152 straight up, but just 263-241-10 ATS. There is slight value to taking the favorites, which is a change from most previous seasons, but not enough to show a profit.

Home favorites of 2.5 points or less: 29-27-3
Home favorites of 3 to 5.5 points: 44-42-1
Home favorites of 6 to 9.5 points: 73-74-2
Home favorites of 10 or more points: 31-23-1

The large favorites are covering the spread at a decent 57.4% rate, which is something to keep an eye on for the rest of the season. The oddsmakers have done a solid job in all the other categories, keeping thins pretty balanced.

Now, we'll look at the same for road favorites:
Road favorites of 2.5 points or less: 25-23-1
Road favorites of 3 to 5.5 points: 41-27-0
Road favorites of 6 to 9.5 points: 18-20-1
Road favorites of 10 to 14.5 points: 0-2-0

Here we see the opposite of what we did with home favorites, as the smaller road favorites are covering the spread at a higher clip than the larger favorites. Road favorites of 5.5 or fewer points are covering at a solid 60.3% ratio, although I'd be extremely surprised if the percentage is that high when the season comes to an end.

Team Tendencies

Now, we'll look at the best and worst teams against the spread this season:

Overall Best Spread Records
Golden State 20-12
Houston 21-13
Memphis 19-12
San Antonio 22-14-1
Denver 22-14

Worst Spread Records
Chicago 12-20
Charlotte 13-20
L.A. Lakers 13-20-1
Atlanta 13-19-1
Boston 13-19-2

Best Home Favorites
Golden State 8-2
Denver 10-3
Houston 12-6
L.A. Clippers 12-6
San Antonio 10-5-1

Worst Home Favorites Washington 0-2
Cleveland 1-4
Charlotte 1-4
Chicago 3-12
Orlando 2-5
Detroit 3-7
Atlanta 4-9-1

Best Home Underdogs
Utah 3-0
L.A. Clippers 2-0
New York 2-0
Memphis 1-0
Portland 4-2

Worst Home Underdogs
L.A. Clippers 0-2
Milwaukee 1-5
Dallas 1-4
Cleveland 2-8
New Orleans 5-9

A little bit surprising to see the Clippers here, although its unlikely they will be made home underdogs many more times this season.

Best Road Favorites
Detroit 2-0
Phoenix 2-0
Indiana 6-1
Oklahoma City 8-4
Memphis 6-3
Chicago 4-2

Worst Road Favorites
Orlando 0-1
New Orleans 0-1
Houston 4-9
Dallas 1-2
Boston 2-4

Best Road Underdogs
Miami 1-0
Orlando 10-3-1
New Orleans 11-5
Golden State 8-4-1
Milwaukee 7-4-1

Worst Road Underdogs
Oklahoma City 0-1-1
L.A. Lakers 1-7
Utah 3-10-1
Indiana 3-9
San Antonio 1-2
L.A. Clippers 1-2

Definitely strange to see the Lakers with such a poor record as underdogs.

Favorites and Rest

No Rest 43-41-3
One to Two Days Rest 176-148-7
Three Days or More Rest 12-18

A bit surprising that favorites with longer-than-normal layoffs were relatively poor wagers. It will be something to keep an eye on for the rest of the season.

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