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NCAA Football Week Ten Report


Updated November 02, 2012

NCAA Football Week Ten Report

Week ten of the college football season is one of the best weekends so far from a fan perspective, as there are some huge games to be played on the gridiron, with Alabama at LSU, Oregon at USC, Oklahoma State at Kansas State and Texas A&M at Mississippi State among the ones that look to be the most interesting.

Several more teams will see their BCS bowl aspirations slip away this weekend, while other teams are still fighting for that sixth win to become bowl eligible. Teams are well aware of their remaining schedules; so many times you can count on a particularly inspired effort when these teams have a winnable contest and other times they may take their lumps against a superior foe and try to save a little something for the following week if they believe they can get a win.

The college football power ratings will still be updated weekly for those who like to check such things. While the power ratings are useful to an extent, the first thing I do after comparing the power ratings to the line is look for reasons not to take a particular team. Usually these involve scheduling dynamics, injuries or suspensions. But the power ratings do draw your attention to those spots where there is a difference between the projected margin and the odds and it's up to the bettor to figure out why that is so and either bet accordingly or pass.

I'll go ahead and list the power rating differences for this week's games:
5* Western Kentucky-9.5, Louisville-15, Auburn-22.5, NC State-10.5, Georgia-14, Rice -3.5.
7* Arkansas -6.5, Stanford -28, Cincinnati-5, Southern Miss-3, Hawaii+33.5, Navy-15.

Out of these games, NC State is coming off a tough loss against rival North Carolina, so I won't be backing the Wolfpack, while Georgia is coming off its big upset of Florida in the World's Biggest Cocktail Party, making the Bulldogs a pass. Other teams have been so bad this season, such as Auburn and Hawaii, I want no part of them even though the oddsmakers are giving us generous numbers.

The Games

Florida Atlantic at Navy: Here's one of the power rating plays I can agree with, as Navy looks to maintain its winning ways and Florida Atlantic is coming off its first victory since opening the season with a 7-3 win over the powerhouse known as Wagner.

Pittsburgh at Notre Dame: The line is Notre Dame by 17 and the power ratings agree, calling for an 18-point Irish victory, but this is a huge letdown spot for Notre Dame after its win over Oklahoma. Pittsburgh is coming off a couple of solid efforts and has the athletes to keep this one reasonably close.

Oregon at USC: The line on this one has climbed to Oregon -7.5, but how good the Ducks really are is still a bit of a question. They have not played a top-tier opponent yet and USC will be their toughest foe, although the Trojans may not be as good as previously thought, given their losses to Stanford and Arizona. A revenge game for Oregon, but laying more than a touchdown on the road against a team like USC is always a risky proposition.

Alabama at LSU: A rematch of last year's BCS title game, this game is obviously huge for both teams. The spread is fluctuating between 9.5 and 10 and I'd give a lean to the home dogs at double-digits.

Oklahoma State at Kansas State: Another game that should be a good one to watch, have to lean to the Cowboys in this game featuring a pair of high-powered offenses. Kansas State was favored by a touchdown last week against Texas Tech and now they're favored by nine over an Oklahoma State that is much better than the Red Raiders.

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