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NCAA Football Week Three Report


Updated September 12, 2012

NCAA Football Week Three Report

Late line moves created a bit of havoc with our power rating plays last week, as some games moved into or out of a being a play. When all was said and done, our 5-point games were a dismal 4-6, bringing them to 13-13 on the year, while our 7-point differences went a solid 5-1 to improve to 9-3 ATS on the year.

Our college football power ratings have just been updated, so the new numbers for this week are out. Since we had so many line moves last week, we'll look at each game and show each team's rating (with home field being factored in), so that you can quickly tell which games either switch between the 5- and 7-point differential. We'll list each game as being a 5* or 7* play.

Week 3 Power Rating Plays

5* Washington State (69) -10.5 at UNLV (53)
5* Northern Illinois (72) -3 at Army (63)
7* Southern Miss (76) -7.5 vs. East Carolina (61)
5* Texas (86) -10.5 at Mississippi (69)
5* Louisville (83) - 3 vs. North Carolina (75)
7* Arkansas (91) +21 vs. Alabama (102)
7* Boise St. (91) -21 vs. Miami, Ohio (62)
7* Rice (60) +20.5 at Louisiana Tech (69)
5* Western Michigan (71) +2.5 at Minnesota (67)
5* Florida (85) + 3 at Tennessee (83)
7* Colorado St (60) +10.5 at San Jose St (63)
7* Wisconsin (90) -14 vs. Utah State (69)
7* LSU (101) - 42.5 over Idaho (51)
7* Colorado (64) + 14 over Fresno (67)
7* Houston (74) +17 at UCLA (81)
5* Georgia (92) - 42.5 over Florida Atlantic (43)
7* Oklahoma State (92) - 22.5 vs. Lafayette (61)
7* Auburn (88) -16.5 over Monroe (61)

Power Rating Plays Thoughts

The status of Arkansas quarterback Tyler Wilson is unknown for the game with Alabama and makes Arkansas a risky proposition. Even if Wilson starts, you have to wonder if he would be able to finish the game against the hard-hitting Crimson Tide defense. Wilson missed the second half of last week's games and you saw happened, as 30-point favorites Arkansas fell in overtime to Monroe...not real thrilled with the two 40+ favorites, as LSU has Auburn on tap and Georgia has conference foe Vanderbilt. Both squads could probably name their their margin, but you have to wonder how much the players will be focused...good situational spot for Wisconsin, as the Badgers are coming off a stinker at Oregon State and Utah State is coming off a huge win over rival Utah.....likewise, expect Boise St., Oklahoma State and Auburn to bounce back after sub-par performances and would think that at least two of the three cover the spread, although I'm not a big fan of laying double digits...Washington State quarterback Tuel is questionable for Friday's game.

SMU falls into our College Football Time of Possession Betting System, which lost its only play last week with Texas State, but at least we had the foresight to question Texas State until we know a bit more about them and we definitely learned they weren't nearly as looked against Houston.

Louisiana-Monroe also falls into the system, but goes directly against our power ratings and you have to expect somewhat of a letdown after the program's biggest victory ever.

A number of September Conference Underdogs this week. They are: Wake Forest, Stanford, East Carolina, Virginia, Arkansas, Bowling Green and Florida. Remember, underdogs have performed better in many conferences than others.

Line Moves and Notes

The line on the Alabama game opened at 19 and shot up to 21 when Wilson was listed as doubtful. Florida State opened -24 and is -28 over Wake Forest as of Wednesday morning. Southern Miss went from -9.5 to -7 over East Carolina in a game our power ratings have Southern Miss, but our underdog system has East Carolina and Conference USA has been the best-performing conference for Sept. underdogs.

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