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NFL Week Twelve Report


Updated November 24, 2012

NFL Week Twelve Report

Sunday's NFL schedule will be a bit on the light side, as there three games on Thursday, along with an ugly Monday night game between the Carolina Panthers and the Eagles.

There are some interesting games, however, with several rematches from last year's playoffs.

The NFL Power Ratings have been updated and there a few plays this week.
Power Rating Plays for the Week: 7* Eagles+2.5 5* Bengals-8.5, Steelers-1, Cardinals-1.5.
Naturally, there are quarterback issues with the Steelers, Cardinals and Eagles, which is one reason why all three teams qualify here.

We will be tracking the Dudley Method and the Total Dudley Method throughout the year and so far all of the systems have been spinning their wheels. We would certainly like to see them start to pick up steam or falter, as there is nothing worse than a 50-50 system, as a method that losses consistently is just as good as one that wins on a regular basis.

We'll list this week's plays, as well as last week's records and season-to-date records.

Dudley Sides (2-1, 16-20): Bengals-8.5, Bills+3, Titans-3.5, Tampa+1, San Fran-1, GB+3.

Dudley Totals (1-2, 17-24-1): Pats over 48.5, Cleveland under 34.5, Colts under 51, KC under 44, Jaguars over 44.5, Ravens over 47, Cardinals under 37, GB over 50.5.

Total Dudley Sides (0-0, 6-10): Tampa+1, Green Bay+3.
Total Dudley Totals (2-2, 7-14): Saints under 49, Cardinals over 37.

YPP Power Ratings (3-0, 20-22): Browns+1, Jaguars+3.5.

Year of the Referee?

As you all know, we had to sit through the debacle of replacement referees for the first three weeks of the season and they had a definite impact on the final results, especially for gamblers who found themselves backing road teams. With the replacement officials, home teams were 26-22 against the spread and are 42-68-2 ATS with the regular officials back.

Nowhere is this more evident than with home underdogs, who were 13-6 against the number with the replacements, but just 14-23-1 with the regular referees back in action.

The Games

Oakland at Cincinnati: The Bengals are coming off a pair of solid efforts, grabbing victories over Kansas City and the Giants, but not real excited to lay more than a touchdown with them. The Bengals have been playing better defense lately and will want to shut down Carson Palmer, who will definitely hear it from the fans. A strong lean to the under.

Denver at Kansas City: This one definitely looks like it could get ugly, and it may very well, but you know what often happens when a game looks like it's going to be a complete blowout. Lean to the double-digit home dog in this one.

Seattle at Miami: Seattle has been brilliant at home and a bit shaky on the road, going 2-3 ATS away from Seattle. Miami has thrown in a few clunkers and give them a slight nod to get things turned around here as three-point home underdogs.

Green Bay at New York Giants: The Giants looked horrible the last time they took the field and the Packers have been rolling along with five straight wins and no doubt remember losing to New York at home in the playoffs last year. Have to believe the bye week will pay some dividends for New York, however, and just a feeling that they get the win in this spot.

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