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NFL Week 14 Report


Updated December 13, 2012

NFL Week 14 Report

Week No. 14 of the NFL season begins with a less-than-inspiring game between the Denver Broncos and the Oakland Raiders. Naturally, the public is getting behind Denver, although the spread is remaining Broncos-10. I can't see any reason to watch the game unless you have a wager on it and can't see any reason to wager on it if you don't have to.

The NFL Power Ratings have been updated and Denver rates a 7*, while the Bengals sneak in there as a 5* play. New England also rates a 5* play.

Our tracking of the Dudley Method and the Total Dudley Method throughout the year is still showing all systems in the red. We'll finish out the years and then look at the results and go from there.

We'll list this week's plays, as well as last week's records and season-to-date records.

Dudley Sides (0-3, 18-26-1): Denver-10, Titans+5.5, Panthers+3.5, Bills-3, Bengals-3, Patriots-3.5.

Dudley Totals (2-3, 23-31-1): TB over 47, Bengals over 45.5, NYG under 53, Seattle over 35.5, Patriots over 51.5.

Total Dudley Sides (1-2, 7-13-1): Jaguars+2.5, Vikings+3, Bengals-3, Patriots-3.5.

Total Dudley Totals (4-1, 12-16): Jets over 38.5, Tampa over 47, NYG under 53, Patriots over 51.5.

YPP Power Ratings (0-1, 22-23): Oakland+10, Cleveland-6.5, Jaguars+2.5, Tampa-7.5.

The Games

Baltimore at Washington: Robert Griffin III is definitely the toast of the town after leading the Redskins past the Giants on Monday night, but that was last week and on Sunday he'll face a Baltimore team coming off a tough loss to Pittsburgh. Sure, the Redskins are a better team with RG3 than they were without him, but they aren't as good as the Ravens are. Have to side the visiting underdog in this game.

Tennessee at Indianapolis: The Colts are a bit of a public choice in this game, but would give them the slightest of leans in this spot.

Chicago at Minnesota: The Vikings have been hurt by Christian Ponder's inability to throw the ball down-field with any consistency. If not for a huge year by Adrian Peterson, Minnesota would really be in trouble this season.

Chicago's defense has shown a few chinks in their armor lately and the Vikings should be able to put some points on the board, as Chicago has allowed 605 rushing yards the past five weeks. The Vikings' defense is getting a bit wore down as the season goes on and can see this one going over 39.

Dallas at Cincinnati: The Cowboys are coming off a pair of nationally televised shootouts, yet the total in this game is a modest 45.5. Even though the Bengals are playing some solid defense the past four weeks, I would expect the total to be slightly higher. As is often the case in the NFL, when something doesn't seem to add up, it's usually best to take the opposite side, so I'll look to the under 45.5 in this one.

Houston at New England: This is obviously the marquee game of this week's schedule, featuring the champions and the top=ranked contender, although Denver fans might disagree. This is one of those games where I'd expect too see the Patriots fully focused and ready to go. I am a little hesitant to back New England with the two Dudley systems selecting them, but would give them a slight nod.

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