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NFL Week 16 Report


Updated December 20, 2012

NFL Week 16 Report

There is no Monday night game this week, which is probably a good thing after several of the match-ups we've been forced to endure the past few weeks. There are a few decent games on the slate, highlighted by San Francisco at Seattle, along with several others.

The NFL Power Ratings have been updated and are coming off a 0-2 week, dropping both games that barely qualified as 5* plays. This week, the Patriots are a 7* and the Eagles are a 5*.

Our tracking of the Dudley Method and the Total Dudley Method throughout the year is still showing all systems in the red. We'll finish out the years and then look at the results and go from there.

If they continue to perform poorly the next two weeks, it will be time for a couple of years worth of back-testing to see if there might be value by going against it.

We'll list this week's plays, as well as last week's records and season-to-date records.

Dudley Sides (1-3, 23-31-1): Tennessee+13. Carolina-8.5, Jaguars+14.5, Eagles+6.5, Rams+3, Vikings+7.5, Arizona+6. Seattle+1.

Dudley Totals (4-4, 29-38-1): Carolina under 46, Washington over 45, Houston over 45, Bears over 36.5, Seattle over 39.

Total Dudley Sides (1-0, 10-15-1):Tenn+13, Carolina-8.5, Bengals+3.5, Jags+14.5, Rams+3, Cleveland+13. Seattle+1.

Total Dudley Totals (0-3, 13-22):Carolina under 46, Washington over 45, Seattle over 39.

YPP Power Ratings (2-2, 25-28): Bengals+3.5, Jags+14.5, Baltimore+2.5, Cleveland+13.

The Games

Atlanta at Detroit: The Lions were an extremely popular wager last week and ended up get thumped by the Cardinals, why the Falcons were steamrolling the New York Giants. It's no surprise to see the public all over the Falcons in this one, which is why I'll lean to the home underdog and take Detroit+4.

Buffalo at Miami: This game shapes up quite a bit like the one above, as you have the Bills coming off a drubbing at the hands of the Seahawks, while the Dolphins were putting a beating on the Jaguars. Teams who lost their last game by 30 or more points have been decent bets in their next game and will once again side with the underdog.

New Orleans at Dallas: The Saints won't be making the playoffs this year, but haven't packed it in, as evidenced by last week's thumping of Tampa Bay. The Cowboys got a bit lucky in their win over the Steelers and have won three in a row. Expecting a high-scoring game and like it go go over the total of 51 and wouldn't be surprised to see the Saints pull it out.

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