Pitcher's Report Card
Now that the baseball season is several months old, we'll look at some of the stats that starting pitchers have compiled. As we're interested in how starting pitchers have performed from a betting standing, we won't give a lot of credence to the traditional stats, such as win-loss record and ERA. We're more interested in how the team performs with a certain starting pitcher on the mound and if the games tend to go over or under.
Those of you who have read Examining Starting Pitchers know that the most important statistic for looking at the efficiency of a starting pitcher is Team Record in Games Started, or TRGS. If we wager on a team and the starting pitcher doesn't get a decision, our bet still stands, so it doesn't make a lot of sense to put too much faith in the starting pitcher's record. Instead, we look at the team record with a particular starting pitcher on the mound.
Baseball's Biggest Money Earners
Here are the starting pitchers who have shown a flat betting profit of over 5.0 units this season:Matt Palmer (Angels), Scott Feldman (Rangers), Josh Johnson (Marlins), Eric Stults (Dodgers), Brandon Looper (Brewers), Justin Verlander (Tigers), Matt Cain (Giants).
Stults and Looper are surprises on the list, as both have above average records (Stults 4-2, Looper 5-3) and ERA's well above 4.50, but their respective teams have gone 3-0 in the games in which neither starter received a decision.
Baseball's Biggest Money Burners:
Here are the starting pitchers who have shown a flat betting loss of over 5.0 units so far this season:Daniel Cabrera (Nationals), Cliff Lee (Indians), Jorge Del la Rosa (Rockies), John Lannan (Nationals), Jose Contreras (White Sox), Manny Parra (Brewers), Gil Meche (Royals), Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies), Francisco Liriano (Twins), Yusmeiro Petit (Diamondbacks), Aaron Cook (Rockies), Doug Davis (Diamondbacks), Ian Snell (Pirates).
Here, the biggest surprise would have to be Lee, who hasn't pitched bad this season, but has gotten no run support at all. Lee sports a 3-6 record, despite having a 2.96 ERA, but the Indians have also lost all three games in which Lee didn't receive a decision.
Likewise, Cook has a 3-3 record, so you wouldn't expect to see him on this list, but the Rockies are 0-5 in the games in which he didn't receive a decision.
Earners to Burners
Here are the pitchers who have a winning record, but a losing TRGS:Ryan Dempster (Cubs), James Shields (Rays).
Burners to Earners
Here are the pitchers who have a losing record but a winning TRGS:
Jon Lester (Red Sox), Jon Garland (Diamondbacks), Jeff Suppan (Brewers), Chad Gaudin (Padres).
Remember, as baseball bettors, we have to look at statistics a bit differently. We can't afford to get caught up in win-loss records or ERA. The only thing that matters to us is how does the team do with a particular starting pitcher on the mound.
