American League Championship Series
In some aspects, the American League Championship Series is quite similar to the National League, in that you have the two best-hitting teams in baseball, so neither side has a clear-cut advantage over the opposition. Again, it is going to come down to pitching and the Yankees have a slight advantage, although not as great as one may think.
The two teams split during the regular season, with each side winning five times.
The Yankees were monsters at home, winning an impressive 70 percent of their games. New York was equally strong against right-handers and left-handers during the season, with no distinct advantage against one or the other.
The Angels were slightly better at home during the season and were stronger against left-handed pitchers, which could work to their advantage, as they figure to see Sabathia and Pettite.
After a slow start, Sabathia pitched the way the Yankees envisioned when they forked over a ton of cash to get him in pinstripes, but he struggled in both starts against the Angels.
Pettite also struggled against the Angels during the regular season, while Burnett, who figures to start the second game, had a bit more success against Los Angeles.
The Angels' Lackey was solid in his lone start against New York during the year, while Saunders had one strong outing against New York and was hit hard in his other start. Josh Beckett threw an amazing five times against the Yankees, but isn't expected to start in the series.
Both teams have solid bullpens, with Mariano Rivera still among the elite closers in the game, while the Angels' Brian Fuentes was a bit more inconsistent during the season, although Darren Oliver was slightly more reliable than Phil Hughes in the set-up role.
While the Yankees have to get the slight nod to advance to the World Series, the odds on the series are giving New York a bit too much credit.
Series Wagers
While I certainly liked the Dodgers a bit more at the opening price of +110, there is still enough value to make them a small play.
In the ALCS, the Yankees are the more likely of the two to advance, but the Angels are definitely worth a small play at +150 or better.
Still, the best wagers in both series are likely to come in individual games.
