Baseball's Turnaround Teams For 2010
At the beginning of a new baseball season, sports gamblers will try to determine which teams will be better than they were the previous season and which teams will be worse. Being able to pinpoint these teams can often lead to finding good value in early season wagers or on betting over or under the posted number of team wins.Baseball is a bit different than the other sports, as a team can go from missing the playoffs to being a World Series contender with the addition of a couple of free agents.
Naturally, off-season transactions have to be looked at when evaluating how a team will perform compared to the previous season. But there's another method of pinpointing teams that may climb in the standings or teams ripe for a fall. That is a team's record in one-run games.
One Run Games
A game that is decided by one run is in all probability a contest that could have gone either way. The team that comes away with a victory is typically one that catches the extra break and there's usually a bit of luck involved along the way.Teams that win, or lose, an extra-ordinary number of one-run games are good candidates to see luck even up a bit the following season.
Since the 2004 season there have been 32 teams that won or lost 60-percent of their one-run games in a season. If we looked for a reversal of fortunes the following season, we'd find of the 14 teams that won an extra-ordinary number of one-run games that 12 of them finished with fewer wins than the previous season.
Of the 18 teams that lost a large number of one-run games, 11 would post better records the following year, six would have worse records and one would have the same record. So the biggest edge is found by looking for teams that won a large number of one-run games to do worse the following year, but there is still merit in looking for those teams who lost to improve the following season.
The first version of this article was published before the start of the 2009 season and we predicted that Tampa Bay would have difficulty matching its 97 wins of 2008 and were proved correct, as the Rays won just 84 games.
We also predicted Seattle, Atlanta and San Diego to improve over the 2008 season and weren't disappointed, as the Padres went from 63 wins in 2008 to 75 in 2009, the Braves went from 72 victories in 2008 to 86 in 2009 and Seattle went from 61 victories to 85.
This can be used for season victory bets or for another tidbit in your every day handicapping. It's up to you.
2010 Turnaround Teams
For 2010, the first team we'll look at is the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates won just 63 games in 2009, but were a dismal 12-22 in one-run games, so we'll look for Pittsburgh to post a few more wins this season.We have a similar situation in Kansas City, as the Royals were just 16-25 in one-run games, so we'll look for an improvement there, as we will with the Oakland Athletics, who were 15-23 in one run games.
On the other side of the coin, we find the Seattle Mariners as one of our targeted teams again this year, except we'll be looking for a decline in the standings, as Seattle was an impressive 35-20 in one-run games in 2009.
The other team I'd expect to see fall a bit in the standings is Florida, as the Marlins were 30-20 in one-run games in 2009.
