Baseball's Comeback Kids
This system is another that pertains to either favorites or underdogs and gives out some of each. The average lay price since 2008 is -110, which is the same as you would lay in football and basketball.
In our other systems this year, we've talked about the long baseball season and the highs and lows that can be expected to occur. We generally look for teams that figure to be on highs, meaning they have some momentum.
Here, we're looking for teams that were able to overcome a sloppy pitching performance and still get a victory. By sloppy, we're referring to the number of walks that a team allows.
The system is to bet on any teams its next game after seeing its pitchers allow five or more walks, provided that team came from behind to take the win.
For an example, we'll use the Chicago Cubs game of May 18.
In that game, the Cubs found themselves trailing 5-3 after five innings, but Chicago scored two in the sixth to tie and two in the eighth to take the 7-5 win. In the game, Cubs pitchers walked five batters, which made the Cubs a play in their next game on May 19.
The Cubs pulled off their first series sweep of the season, grabbing a 5-1 win on May 19 as a healthy underdog.
Here are the year-by-year records for the system:
2008 144-121 +2175
2009 151-132 +735
2010 117-94 +1867
2011 35-31 +227
Total 447-378 +5004
The record isn't bad for such an easy method.
Run Line Wagering
If we were to look at the same teams on the run line, our record since 2008 would be 435-380, which is slightly worse, but that also knocks the average lay price down to -103, so the profit since 2008 would be +6,208, which is $1,200 more.
The year-by-year breakdown taking these teams on the run line would be:
2008 143-122 +2060
2009 146-134 +1370
2010 111-93 +2032
2011 35-31 +746
For the year, 2008 was slightly worse using the run line, while the other two full seasons showed a bigger profit in betting the run line.
The record in 2011 is the same in betting the run line or the money line, but those betting the money line are laying -114, while those taking the run line have an average price of +106, which is why the profit is much better.
This method will take a few minutes each day to look at the previous day's boxscores, but it has proven to be a worthwhile method over the years.
