Baseball Divisional Underdog Method
No other sport will see a team go through as many peaks and valleys as baseball. Not only is this due to the sheer number of games each team plays, but also due to the number of games played on consecutive days. While the NBA may make an issue out of teams playing three games in four days, it isn't unusual to see baseball teams playing 10 or more days in a row.For that reason, the sports is also more prone to streaks, both winning and losing that the others, even though at the end of the season the worst baseball teams will have a higher winning percentage than the worse NBA team, while the best baseball team will have a lower winning percentage than the best NBA squad.
Some baseball bettors have a rule not to bet on a team that didn't win its previous game. That might be a little too much, but at least there is some rationale for that train of thought, especially when betting underdogs.
In fact, taking divisional underdogs off a straight up win, either over today's opponent or the previous team it played, has been one of the most successful systems over the past seven seasons, showing a profit in six of the seven years. The lone exception was 2009, a year in which underdog bettors shudder just thinking about, as favorites won an extraordinary number of games that season.
Yearly Breakdown
A year by year breakdown of how divisional underdogs have fared by units won:2004 +27.50
2005 +63.95
2006 +33.10
2007 +28.5
2008 +60.60
2009 -19.30
2010 +25.45
It's easy to believe that 2009 was simply an aberration, do to the extreme number of favorites that won. On the positive side, every other season made enough of a profit to cover the one losing season, so I wouldn't hesitate to follow it again in 2011.
Underdog betting systems aren't for everybody, as you're going to lose more wagers than you win and you'll likely have longer losing streaks. But at the end of the season, you should be on the plus side of ledger, which is what it's all about.
