Betting the First Five Innings
Just as football and basketball bettors have the option of making bets solely for the first half, a number of sportsbooks are now allowing baseball gamblers to do the same thing by betting the first five innings of a game. There are times when a five-inning wager makes more sense than the conventional bet and we'll look at some of those in this article.
One of the great things about a five-inning wager is that it typically plays out to form more than a nine-inning game. The starting pitchers, which are usually the basis for any baseball wager, have more of an impact on the outcome in a five-inning game than they do in a regulation game, as the bullpen shouldn't come into play. If it does, you're probably in trouble, as that means your starting pitcher didn't last five innings, which will normally result in a loss.
Underdogs Can Be Solid Plays
The lines on a five-inning game are typically close to those for a full nine-innings. Very rarely will the difference between a five-inning and a full game be more than five cents on the moneyline and because of that, many times those bettors who like an underdog may receive better value with the five-inning bet.
In theory, a longer game should favor the better team, while the underdog is likely to fare better in a shorter contest. While the Red Sox may be -160 favorites over the Rangers in a nine-inning game, the Red Sox could be expected to be -250 favorites in a 27-inning game, as the longer the game goes on, the greater the chances are that the better team will win in the long run.
By the same token, the Red Sox should only be favored around -135 in a three-inning game, as the Rangers have a better opportunity of being in front in a shorter game. The same holds true in a five-inning game in that the favorite should actually be slightly less of a favorite than it is for a nine-inning game, especially if the starting pitchers are close to being evenly matched, so the underdogs may offer better value for bettors.
Don't Worry About the Bullpen
In today's game, some teams are hesitant to use their closer two days in a row, while it's nearly universal among managers that you don't use your closer three days in a row and teams will often try to get a save from a different pitcher or coax a complete game out of their starter if the closer has made two straight appearances. One game doesn't mean nearly as much in the long run as seeing your closer go on the disabled list with a bad arm, so teams are more willing to take its chances with somebody else, which is why in the 2007 season a closer like the Mets' Billy Wagner had 34 saves, but three other pitchers combined for five additional saves during the season.
By tracking which closers have worked for two straight games or pitched more than an inning in the previous game, and are unlikely to see action in a game, baseball bettors may want to give the five-inning wager a closer look, as they will not have to worry about the bullpen blowing the lead in the late innings.
Complete games are fairly rare and practically every baseball bettor has watched in horror as their team leads 4-2 in the seventh inning and removes its starter, only to see the bullpen surrender the lead and lose the game before the closer makes his appearance. Some teams are practically notorious for this and are often risky bets in a nine-inning game, but can be played with a bit more confidence in the five-inning contest. This is especially true for starters who are known to be able to last only six or seven innings.
Pay Attention to the Batting Order
Many times one of the key differences between a team that scores a lot of runs and a team that is in the middle of the pack in scoring rests in the bottom part of the batting order. A good American League team will often decent hitters batting in the last three spots in the order, including a No. 9 hitter who is essentially a second lead-off man, while middle of the pack teams may have a couple of .230 hitters buried at the bottom of the order.
In a five-inning game, if the side were retired in order all five trips to the plate, the No. 1 through No. 6 hitters would all make two plate appearances, while the No. 7 through No. 9 hitters would only hit once.
In a nine-inning game, the entire batting order is guaranteed to make three trips to the plate, so there is a very slight edge to the team with the stronger No. 1 through No. 6 hitters.
Among starters who pitched 162 innings in 2007, the median WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) was 1.32, meaning that a pitcher would face 4.32 batters in an average inning. If that average is factored into a full nine-inning game, every batter would make four trips to the plate, while the No. 1 through No. 3 hitters would make five plate appearances. In a five-inning game, every batter would make two trips to the plate, while the No. 1 through No. 4 hitters would make three plate appearances, so a team's best power hitter should receive an extra at bat. There's also the added benefit the weaker-hitting team receives of not having the bottom of the batting order come up an additional time, as that should favor the better-hitting team.
Summary
There is no magical system that will yield guaranteed success for betting five-inning games, but there are certain instances where baseball gamblers may receive better value by wagering on the first half of the game. The aim of this article was to point several of those instances out and let the bettor decide if that is the best way to go for a particular game.
