Short Term or Long Term Baseball Trends?
Whenever we introduce a new baseball betting system on these pages, you can be sure that's been back-tested and looked at to ensure that it works. Our typical time frame is to begin with the 2008 or 2009 season and continue through the 2011 season.While a couple of years may not sound like much of a database, it's important to remember that a baseball season is twice as long as either the NBA or NHL and 10 times as long as the NFL season. So a baseball system that has been tested for three years is the equivalent of back-testing a basketball system for six years and a football system for 30 years in terms of the number of games looked at.
Those of you who have read through the previous systems have at one time probably seen me make reference to the 2009 season as being somewhat of an aberration, as favorites won at a higher clip than normal. That one season tends to distort the performance of a number of underdog systems that may be worth considering, as we're interested in the outcome of today's games, as opposed to what took place in 2009.
Next, we'll look at two new systems and give their results since 2009.
Bet on any Favorite When the Opposition Left Three or Fewer Runners on Base in its Previous Game
By previous game, it can be against the same opponent or a different opponent. We're just looking for those games where the team had three or fewer runners stranded.Since the start of the 2009 season, the system is 247-134 for a profit of 42.72 units and has an average lay price of -154. Obviously it's a solid system for the time frame and its ease of use.
But let's look at a yearly breakdown before we rush out to bet.
2009 111-52 +32.60
2010 114-66 +11.43
2011 22-16 -1.31
Obviously from looking at the results, the system did most of its damage in the previously mentioned 2009 season. It performed admirably in 2010, although not nearly as well as it did the previous year. It's limped out of the blocks a bit this season.
The question bettors have to ask themselves is if things will turn around in 2011. It's really difficult to tell and would probably be wise to watch for a bit before jumping in and betting the system plays.
Bet on any Team That is a Home Underdog of Less Than +150 When its Starter Lost His Last Game by One Run
Since the start of the 2009 season this system is 81-78 for a profit of 19.42 units. Anytime you find a system that picks underdogs and is in the 50-percent range, you know you have something worthwhile.Again, let's look at the yearly breakdown of the system.
2009 27-39 -720
2010 41-29 +2136
2010 13-10 +526
Here we find the opposite, as the system was a losing proposition in the 2009 season, but had a strong 2010 season and is off to a good start in 2011.
The key difference between the two systems is that the first one took advantage of the aberration of 2009 to do most of its damage and its success relies more on longer term results. The second system did about what one would expect in 2009 and has done much better than expected since then, with its winnings coming in the last year-and-a-half, making it more reliant of shorter term results.
If I had to pick one of the two to show a profit for the remainder of the year I would definitely choose the second one, based on the recent results.
There is no correct choice, however, and this is just one of the many factors that sports bettors have to decide on a regular basis. If this business was easy, everybody would be doing it.
