Betting the First Round of the 2007-08 NBA Playoffs
NBA fans and bettors are gearing up for the start of the 2007-08 playoffs, which begin on Saturday, April 19. There is no shortage of betting opportunities on the playoffs, as basketball gamblers can bet games individually, make wagers on which team will win the series, along with a number of propositions bets that will be available.
Many veteran sports bettors know that the playoffs are typically one of the most difficult times to come out ahead of the sportsbooks, as lines tend to be at their sharpest, although the public influence can provide several solid wagering opportunities.
There is a general perception that betting the underdogs and taking the unders are the way to go in the playoffs, but looking at the first-round results from the 2006-07 NBA playoffs, shows that out of 41 games, the underdogs were just 19-20-2 against the point spread, while under bettors would have been 22-19. Combing the unders with the underdogs would have resulted in a 41-39-2 record and a loss of 1.9 units.
The first games in each series did tend to go under, however, as six of the eight opening games fell under the total, meaning that 17 of the next 33 games went over the total.
Looking at the Series Prices
There has already been quite a bit of movement in many of the series prices posted on the eight first-round match-ups, with Washington, Boston, Detroit, and the Lakers among the most popular plays.
Pinnacle opened Cleveland -180 to win its series with Washington, but bettors have driven the number down to Cleveland -120 at most sportsbooks. Bettors who like the Wizards to win the series can find them at even money in many places.
Pinnacle's opening line of Orlando -250 has been driven up to the Magic -300 at most books, with bettors able to take Toronto +250 to win the series.
The opening series line of Detroit -900 has been bet up to Detroit -1200, with bettors able to take Philadelphia +800 if they like the 76ers to pull the upset.
The most lopsided opening series price, Boston -2000 over Atlanta, has gotten even worse, with the Celtics -6000 at Bobdog and a ridiculous -10000 at Intertops. Bettors who like the Hawks can find Atlanta +4000 at Bodog, while Intertops is offering a meager +2500, which is terrible when taken in combination with its line of Boston -10000.
In the Western Conference, the series look to be a bit more evenly matched, as the opening number of the Lakers -400 will attest, although bettors have driven the line up to Los Angeles -700, with Denver bettors able to find the Nuggets +500.
The Utah Jazz were made -200 favorites and bettors have moved the line to Utah -225, with Houston +185 available for those who like the Rockets.
San Antonio opened at -170 to defeat the Suns and Phoenix bettors have driven the line down to San Antonio -140, with the Suns +120.
Money has also come in on the Mavericks, as the opening line of New Orleans -160 has been driven down to New Orleans -140, with the Mavericks available at +120.
There may be some value in taking the Suns and Mavericks before the playoffs begin, as either team is capable of winning at least one of the first two games, which could possibly open up the potential for a nice hedge, by coming back and taking San Antonio or New Orleans at plus money. Several bettors I correspond with are looking at taking Washington to win the series, but will be pulling for Cleveland to win the first game and will then wager on the new series series price, thus getting the Wizards at a much more favorable price. Likewise, a similar situation could occur for bettors who like the Jazz, but don't want to lay those types of odds.
Several Playoff Systems
Since a number of bettors like to follow systems, here are several that have shown some success in the past, but as I always say, past success doesn't always translate into future success.
1. Bet Against Teams Off a 33-Point or Greater Victory
Bettors who have gone against such lopsided victors have gone on a 9-0 run.
2. Take Home Teams as Underdogs if They're Down 2-0
Teams down 2-0 after two games are essentially in a must-win situation and have a 20-9 record against the spread, but as we mentioned in an earlier article, if these teams lose the third game, they tend to be poor wagers in the fourth game, as they recognize the writing on the wall and tend to let down, knowing it's essentially a lost cause.
Have fun with the NBA playoffs and don't go overboard on your wagers. The post-season tends to be a bit more difficult to handicap than the regular season, but if you're patient and look for the right opportunities, they will appear.
