2008 Final Four Preview
With the college basketball season coming to a close in just a few days, bettors will be making one last stand against the oddsmakers beginning with the two Saturday games. The current lines are:
North Carolina -3
Kansas 159.5
Memphis -2
UCLA 134
So far, North Carolina has received 79-percent of the money wagered on sides in the game, while, surprisingly, Memphis has received 66-percent of the money wagered on sides in its game. The total in the Carolina game opened at 158.5, while the total in the Memphis game is pretty much unchanged.
It's easy to see why the Tar Heels are receiving so much of the betting action, but it is a little strange that the line has moved from UNC -3.5 to UNC -3, especially given the betting percentages. In a game of this magnitude, with all of the money coming in, the line should have moved in the opposite direction, so bettors should ask themselves why the line went the other way.
It's no secret what each team wants to do in the game, with the Tar Heels looking for an up-and-down game with the score in the 80s or 90s, while Kansas will look to keep the tempo a bit more manageable.
The total is extremely high for such a big game, as there are likely to be a few cases of nerves, so I would lean towards the under, and will give the first half under once the number comes out, as it is likely to be in the neighborhood of 78 points, on the basis of Kansas being able to dictate the pace more at the beginning of the game, but if they get behind in the second half, are likely to have to try and speed things up a bit, which will play into North Carolina's hands and make the game more likely to go over the total.
The Memphis game is a bit similar from an over/under standpoint, as the Tigers are likely to try and play the game faster than the Bruins would like, and a game in the 70s should favor Memphis more than it does the Bruins, although UCLA did win several high-scoring games during the year.
The outcome of this game could be decided by what happens down low, with Kevin Love and Joey Dorsey. Dorsey has been able to muscle people around inside all season, but that shouldn't be the case against UCLA's big man, but things could take on a different look if either big man gets in foul trouble.
A tough game to handicap, but I'd give the slightest of leans to UCLA in a game that can really go either way.
Remember, these are just two more basketball games and it doesn't make sense to go overboard on the wagers. There will be games played on Sunday and there will be games played on Tuesday, so the next few days shouldn't be treated any differently than any other day of the year.
