Betting the 2009 NBA Finals
The 2009 NBA Finals begin Thursday in Los Angeles and the Lakers are solid favorites to get the job done against the upstart Orlando Magic.
The Magic pulled off a huge upset, at least as far as sportsbooks were concerned, by rolling past the Cleveland Cavaliers in six games, while the Lakers dispatched the Denver Nuggets in the same number of games.
The Lakers are -280 favorites to win the NBA title, which is almost exactly the same odds they were to defeat Denver, but you can easily make a case that Orlando is a better team than Denver, having won 59 games compared to the Nuggets' 54.
Both the Lakers and the Magic have similar records when venturing out of conference, as Orlando posted a 22-8 record against the Western Conference, while the Lakers were 21-9 against the East.
Advantages
The Lakers have a huge advantage when it comes to experience, as Kobe and the boys have been there before and won't be overwhelmed by all the hype surrounding the series. Teams which have played in the NBA Finals in the past few seasons have a huge edge against teams which have not, winning over 80-percent of the time.
The Lakers will also be out to make amends for last year's dismal showing in the Finals, where they were manhandled by the Celtics and humiliated in the last game of the series.
Los Angeles also has home court advantage, which can't be overlooked in this situation, especially since L.A. was 36-5 at home during the regular season and 8-2 in the playoffs.
The Magic have gone 5-5 on the road in the playoffs and were 27-14 during the regular season away from home, so they have a chance of stealing one on the road.
The Magic will have some confidence, after beating the Lakers both games this season, and the possible return of Jameer Nelson could be a huge emotional lift. But Nelson has missed so much time you have to wonder if his return would mess up the team chemistry, although the fact he was Orlando's leading scorer in both games against the Lakers should account for something.
The Magic had five players average double figures in scoring this season, although Dwight Howard is probably the only one capable of striking fear into an opponent. The Lakers, meanwhile, had four players average more than 10 points a game, led by the one-two punch of Bryant and Pao Gasol.
Earlier Meetings
The Magic won the first meeting between the two 106-103, as Orlando withstood Bryant's 41 points. Both teams had 40 rebounds, but Orlando had 15 turnovers, compared to nine by Los Angeles. The difference in the game was Orlando's 12-for-30 shooting beyond the 3-point line, while the Lakers were 7-for-21.
A better night at the foul line for Orlando would have made a difference, as the Magic were 24-for-39, while the Lakers were nearly perfect, going 24-for-25.
The teams met in Los Angeles in January, as Orlando overcame a 52-44 halftime deficit and pulled out a 109-103 win. Orlando had a 54-40 rebounding advantage and held the Lakers to under 40-percent shooting.
The Magic once again had a big advantage from the 3-point line, making 12-of-28, while the Lakers were just 9-for-26, including a dismal 1-for-5 from Bryant.
Summary
The Magic have to be given a chance to pull off the upset, although the odds probably don't equal their actual chances of winning. It may be best to wait until later in the series when the odds are adjusted if you want to bet on Orlando to win it all.
Likewise, the Lakers are difficult to wager when you have to lay that kind of number, and those wanting to wager on Los Angeles may be able to find a better number in the series, especially if Orlando can earn a split during the first two games.
Both meetings were decided by six or fewer points this season, so there may be a bit of value in taking Orlando plus the points in the first two games of the series in L.A.
Likewise, both games eclipsed the current total of 206, although it's not always wise to use season scoring averages when it comes to the playoffs.
