Betting the 2009 NCAA Basketball Championship Game
The Michigan State Spartans and the North Carolina Tar Heels will battle it out tonight in a rematch of a game that took place at Ford Field back on Dec. 3. In that contest, the Tar Heels rolled to a 98-63 victory as 10-point favorites.
The line on tonight's game is North Carolina -7.5 and the total is 153. The total in the first meeting between the two was 167.5, so there has been a dramatic drop.
The big question heading into tonight's game is if Michigan State can complete a 35-point turnaround. I have to believe that they can.
In the first meeting between the two, the Spartans were dismal from the field (23 of 66) and pretty bad from the foul line, hitting just 13 of 21 free throws. But the telling stat in the game was that Michigan State committed 21 turnovers, while Carolina made just nine.
It was the fourth game in a week for the Spartans, and coach Tom Izzo took responsibility for the scheduling, which had Michigan State facing Maryland, Oklahoma, Wichita State, and North Carolina in a seven-day stretch.
The Spartans weren't overly impressive to begin the tournament, having to rally to get past USC and Kansas, but have played their best basketball of the season in their last two games, easily beating Louisville and Connecticut.
North Carolina is the obvious favorite and have won their last two games by 12 and 14 points, but have benefited from some poor 3-point shooting by the opposition as Oklahoma and Villanova both shot less than 20-percent from long range, even though they had quite a few open looks.
The public is on the Tar Heels, which is to be expected, and the line may reach NC -8 by game time. It's not worth a large wager, but the Spartans are probably the right side in this one.
From a totals standpoint, the number is pretty tough, so I'll stay away.
