NBA Playoff First Round Odds
The NBA playoffs are about to begin and if the oddsmakers are correct, the higher seeds should do pretty well in the first round. While one or two of the lower seeds may advance, the sportsbooks appear to be fairly confident if it happens, it will take place in the Western Conference, which is where the three smallest favorites can be found.The first thing we'll look at are the individual series prices for the first round match-ups:
Chicago -3400, Indiana +2200
Miami -1800, Philadelphia +1000
Boston -380, New York +300
Orlando -550, Atlanta +425
Los Angeles -2000, New Orleans +1400
San Antonio -370, Memphis +280
Oklahoma City -215, Denver +180
Dallas -205, Portland +175
The first thing that stands out is that San Antonio, the No. 1 seed in the West, is only favored -370 over Memphis, while the No. 1 seed in the East, Chicago, is a hefty -3400 favorite. With or without Manu Ginobli the Spurs should be able to defeat Memphis, it's just a matter of if you're comfortable laying those kind of odds on San Antonio.
You'll also note how the odds are different on a huge public team such as the Lakers. The Lakers and Dallas finished with identical records and Portland was only two games better than New Orleans, yet the Lakers are -2000 favorites, while the Mavs are just -205.
It's difficult to bet any of the series in the East, where the Celtics are the smallest favorite yet bettors are still being asked to risk $38 to win $10.
In the West, the value is there with New Orleans, although an upset is still a bit of a reach, while the other series are a bit more reasonable from a betting standpoint.
Those wanting some rooting action for the playoffs may want to look at the odds to win each conference or the NBA title instead, as you're not asked to lay outlandish prices.
Odds to Win the Eastern Conference
Miami+165Chicago +185
Boston+385
Orlando+785
Any other team+1600
The Heat will definitely be the public choice here, which gives us good value on Chicago and Boston, which is where I would look. Sure, it will be a disappointment for Miami not to get to the NBA Finals, but the Heat aren't the first team to have a mini All-Star team, as the Lakers tried something similar with Karl Malone and Gary Payton a while back to no avail.
Odds to Win the Western Conference
Los Angeles-125San Antonio+265
Oklahoma City+725
Dallas+1000
Denver+1600
Portland+3000
New Orleans+6000
Memphis+6000
It looks to be a two-horse race between the Lakers and the Spurs, with the Lakers getting a healthy nod, despite San Antonio having home court advantage and if the two meet in the Western Conference Finals, Ginobli would likely be at full strength.
Those extremely confident that either Los Angeles or San Antonio will come out of the West could scalp and wager $125 on LA to win $100 and $62 on San Antonio to win $164.30. If the Lakers win, they win $100 and lose $62 for a profit of $38. If the Spurs win, they win, they win $164.30 and lose $125 for a profit of $39.30. If both are knocked out, however, it's a loss of $187.
Odds to Win the NBA Title
Los Angeles+265Miami+285
Chicago+450
San Antonio+625
Boston+800
Oklahoma City+1400
Orlando+1525
Dallas+2250
Any other team+2550
This is another situation that offers potential wagering possibilities, especially for those liking the two favorites. You can bet on both favorites and essentially get close to -115 odds that one of the two will walk away with the title.
If you were to wager $100 on Los Angeles and Miami and the Lakers won, you would win $265 and lose $100 for a profit of $165, while if the Heat won, you would lose $100 on the Lakers and win $285 on the Heat for a profit of $185. Since you are risking $200 to win less than that ($165 or $185) you will be laying slight odds.
There are many possibilities in wagering on the NBA playoffs and hopefully yours will pay off.
