Betting the Bracket Busters
One of the biggest weekends for college basketball fans is what is known as Bracket Buster weekend. That's when a number of mid-major conference teams play against opposition from a different conference. The concept is that the winners of these games will have a leg up on the competition when it comes time to name the field for the NCAA Tournament.The teams playing in the Bracket Buster games were selected by their conferences prior to the start of the season, which is why there are some teams playing with less than stellar records, while more deserving teams have been left out.
The teams playing tend to get up for these games, which gives bettors several different situations to look for.
Bet Double-Digit Underdogs
It's safe to say that double-digit underdogs are teams who are having disappointing seasons. These teams were selected before the season began, so the conferences believed these teams would be better than they are.The pain of a disappointing season can be somewhat diminished with a solid effort in a big game, so double-digit underdogs have gone a strong 24-13 in Bracket Buster games since their inception.
Look to Bet Road Teams
If we concentrate on the teams from conferences who normally have games with point spreads, we'll see that home teams are covering at a 40-percent ratio over the past five years. It's difficult to tell why road teams have performed so well. Perhaps the sportsbooks are placing too much emphasis on home court advantage or the visitors take an "us against the world" mentality into these games. But past history has shown road teams to be decent wagers.Look For Overs in Low Total Games
Another surprising trend that has developed over the years is that games with a posted total under the league median have been good over wagers. The median points scored in college basketball this season is 69.6 points, so we'll look to bet over in the games with a total of 139 or lower.There are several reasons why this trend has developed over the years. As these are big games for the teams, players put forth a bit more effort than in a typical regular season game. Now players can choose to put forth that extra effort on offense or defense, but when playing a team you don't normally see, the logical choice is to put that effort into offense. After all, the players want the opposition to know they're good, so it's simply a case of having a bit of an ego.
As these are one-shot games, the teams trailing are also more likely to foul towards the end of the game more frequently. After all, they have nothing to lose and will try to extend the game if there is any hope of a comeback. For this reason, games that are expected to be competitive, such as those with single-digit point spreads, have fared a bit better in the over department.
There are dozens of Bracket Buster games to be played and you don't have to wager on every one, but if you choose to place a few bets, you'll have a few good trends to help you with your selections. Remember, just because something has happened in the past, doesn't mean it will continue to happen in the future, although that's usually the way to bet.
2011 Update
There were a few minor changes to the popular Bracket Buster System that is being discussed on some of the big forums. Here is that system:Last year they went 35-19-1 ATS 64.8
1. All totals of 144.5 or less are played to go over, unless the favorite is favored by more than 10 points.
2. Play underdogs of 10 or more points.
3. Play underdogs of less than 3.5 points. They must be underdogs, not favorites.
4. Bet teams who usually do not have a posted line of their games.
Last year these plays were 35-19-1 and are 115-50-1 over the past four years.
