NBA High Totals
Sometimes when handicapping sports, the oddsmaker will do a bit of the work for us. When you see a total that's much higher than usual, it's best to either stay away from the game or tag along with the oddsmaker and play the over.
Most NBA games will have posted totals in the 190 to 200 range. When two good defensive teams meet, the number could drop into the 170s or 180s, just as when two high-scoring teams meet, the number will climb into the 210 range or higher.
Occasionally, there will be totals posted of 220 and higher, which is what we're looking for.
Five Year Study
During the 2004-05 to 2008-09 NBA seasons there were 444 games with totals 220 or higher. Blindly betting each of these games to go over the total would have yielded a tiny profit, as 236 games went over the total and 208 games went under the total for a percentage of 53.2.
While blindly betting the games to go over the total isn't going to make you rich, it's important to note, because you don't want to be bucking the trend and betting the games to go under.
But a breakdown of those results shows a pair of interesting trends. The first, is that games played on Saturday consistently went under the total, as there were 22 overs and 46 games that went under.
The reason I mention this is that there was an old system that was popular in the 1980s that called for betting high-scoring teams to go over the total on Saturday night, figuring the players would want to put on a show for the fans. Obviously, the opposite now holds true.
While the Saturday night angle is interesting to know, it's not really one that can be wagered on, as it doesn't meet our standard criteria of making common sense. There really is no reason why games on Saturday tend to go under the total at such a high percentage. A case could possibly be made that the public wagers more on Saturday and the line reflects that, but that's kind of a stretch.
East vs. West
The other interesting angle that pops up is one that can be acted upon and that is to look for games where teams from opposing conferences are playing each other and bet those games to go over 220. A bettor doing that would have a sparkling 31-18 record over the past five years. Granted, there aren't a lot of plays, but anything that clicks at a 63.6 winning percentage should not be ignored.
That angle does make sense in that teams are more likely to play conference games with a little more intensity, which often means playing tougher defense. Teams within the same conference will see each other more and become familiar with the tendencies of individual players.
Likewise, teams that only see each other once a year are more likely to go out and try to outscore the other team and have a bit more fun in the process.
Many times these games will involve several different time zones, as well, which may take players a few days to get adjusted. But a tired player is more likely to save a bit of energy on defense, while giving more effort on offense.
Anytime you see a total of 220 or more and teams from opposing conferences are playing, the over deserves a good, hard look.
