Betting the NBA Conference Semifinals
The NBA conference semifinals are when things start to get interesting, as the majority of the pretenders have been eliminated from the post-season and the remaining teams are the ones that can make a run for the title.As bettors, we would think that would lead to some good underdog wagers, but history has shown that isn't necessarily the case, as favorites covered more often than not over the past four years. Still, betting solely favorites would be a losing proposition.
Betting overs and unders is also pretty close to a 50-50 proposition and making flat wagers on either the over or the under would also show a loss. The lone exception would have been betting the over in games where the posted total is 210 or higher,, as those have seen the over go 13-8-2.
There are several interesting trends that have popped up over the years, however, and both of those involve home underdogs. Home dogs have proven to be a decent bet, going 8-5-1 against the point spread between the 2005 and 2008 seasons, but an even better situation applies to the total.
In games where the home team has been made the underdog, there have been three overs and 11 unders. The logic behind the trend makes sense in that a home team is likely to be made an underdog if they lack the firepower of the opposition. The home team's best chance is to slow the tempo down and play tough defense.
Naturally, the selection sample is a little on the small side, as there aren't many games to base the trend on. I wouldn't bet blindly on the trend to continue, based on the sample size, but it is something that should be taken into consideration when betting the NBA Conference Semifinals.
