Betting the NBA Playoffs
Once the NBA playoffs start it's essentially a brand new season. Every team has the same record and in theory, at least, just as good of a chance to win the title as the next team.
As sports bettors, we're concerned with the differences between the regular season and the playoffs. The most obvious difference is that games tend to be lower scoring, which make for some low overs/unders being posted by the sportsbooks.
A major reason games are lower scoring is because the officials tend to let the players get away with more. There are fewer touch fouls called and they're more willing to turn a blind eye to stuff happening away from the basketball. Fewer fouls should equate fewer foul shots, which means fewer points scored with the clock stopped.
Another reason there is less scoring in the postseason is that each possession takes on added importance and teams are more hesitant to take chances. Teams will hold on to the ball a bit longer looking for a better shot and won't gamble as much on fast breaks or length-of-court passes.
The other reason playoff games are lower scoring is simply defensive intensity by the players. During the regular season players may be a bit lax on their defensive assignments, preferring to score, but players who don't play defense in the playoffs usually find themselves on the bench.
Now, what does this all mean for sports bettors?
On its own, it doesn't mean a whole lot, but it does point to several factors that bettors should pay attention to.
The first is to look for physical teams that prefer the slowdown, banging style, such as the Detroit Pistons of old. These teams often have an advantage in the playoffs because they are used to the style of basketball that is played, and coupled with the officials' tendency to let more fouls go, can beat the opposition up physically.
Also it's important to look at each team's roster and see if there are individual players who may benefit from the difference in officiating and how that relates to the team.
An example would be Greg Oden of the 2009 Portland Trail Blazers. Oden is a big bruiser, and one of those players who seems to have two fouls on him when he enters the game. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he gives Portland a big inside presence.
Experience is another factor that comes into play, as the majority of championship teams that build from within, generally have to go through some growing pains in the postseason first. It's highly unlikely a team comprised of draft picks will win the title its first year in the playoffs.
Free agency had changed that somewhat, as the 2008 Boston Celtics showed, so look at the make-up of a team's roster to see if they have some playoff experience.
Bettors need to be aware of why the lines are what they are. Not only will totals be quite a bit lower than they were during the regular season, but the lines will be adjusted depending on the previous games' results. Don't be afraid to bet against teams that must win, as you will generally get the best of the odds.
Lastly, remember that the bigger the stage, the more difficult it is to find good value. Despite the sports services and their Playoff Games of the Year, etc., the most successful sports bettors around will generally scale back on their wager size a bit. Don't be bashful about following suit.
Good luck in the playoffs and have some fun.
