Betting College Basketball's Conference Tournaments
The college basketball conference tournaments are one of the most enjoyable times of year for sports bettors. There are plenty of games on the schedule and tournaments typically run all day, meaning there are games that begin early and last until the West Coast teams play at night.There are some good betting opportunities that come along for the bettor who is able to pick and choose their spots. Lines are normally their strongest at this time of the season, but the oddsmakers do have to account for public perception a bit more than usual.
The three-year trends tend to suggest that unders are the way to bet, but different conferences have different trend results. The unders have been good wagers in some conferences, while others have seen a large majority of games go over the total. Likewise, some conferences have seen the underdogs cover the majority of the time, while others have seen the favorites cover more often.
Looking at the major conference results over the past three years shows that favorites have covered 245 times and the underdogs have covered the spread 252 times, which is pretty much even. There have been 299 games over the total and 337 games under the total, making the unders slightly above the break-even mark of 52.38 percent.
A Look at the Conferences
Here's we'll look to see how favorites have done in each of the major conferences, as well as how many games have gone over and under the total.Atlantic 10 18-17 16-19
ACC 10-23 12-20-1
Big 10 18-12 12-18
Big 12 14-17-2 11-22
Big East 22-15-1 21-16-1
Big West 13-10 8-15
Colonial 14-20-1 10-23-2
Conf. USA 15-20-1 9-26-1
MAC 19-16 17-17-1
Miss. Valley 14-13 11-16
Mtn. West 11-13 14-10
Pac 10 17-9 16-10
SEC 13-21 20-13-1
Sun Belt 17-25 26-15-1
WAC 9-16 17-8
WCC 11-7 9-9
The chart above shows that Atlantic 10 favorites have covered the spread 18 times and the underdog has covered 17 times. Likewise, 16 of the Atlantic 10 games have gone over the total, while 19 have gone under the total.
Looking For an Edge
Several things stand out when looking at the individual conference results. One is that in the conferences traditionally believed to be the toughest (ACC, Big East and SEC) the underdogs have covered the spread a good percentage of the time.Some of the biggest differences have been in the totals department, where the Big 12 has seen just 11 of 33 games go over the total, while a conferences like the WAC has seen 17 of 25 games sail over the total.
If we dig a little bit deeper, we'll find that large underdogs of 15 or more points have traditionally been good bets, covering the spread 13 out of 20 times. This is probably a case of the favored team trying to rest its players for the next game and giving the bench more playing time than they might normally see.
Pick and choose your spots, don't be afraid to pass when you don't have and edge and you can make the conference tournaments more enjoyable and more profitable.
