Betting the Sweet 16
By now, a number of pretenders have been eliminated from March Madness and we're left with 16 teams in the NCAA tournament. The oddsmakers have a pretty good feel for each team, along with extra time for their lines to be sharpened, as the majority of bettors won't place their wagers until the day of the game, so any value in the line is normally eliminated by the time the public gets around to betting.
Still, there are usually several good opportunities for cashing a winning ticket during the Sweet 16, as several trends have developed over the past few years.
NOTE: If you're new to the world of sports betting, I would suggest reading Understanding Money Lines , Understanding Totals ,and Understanding Point Spreads before continuing. It will make things much easier.
Looking over the last nine years of results from the Sweet 16 round, shows that underdogs are likely to lose the game straight up, but have covered the point spread at a healthy clip. The higher-seeded teams are 49-23 straight up during the last nine years, but are just 28-39-5 against the point spread. With five pushes in just 72 games, bettors should see the value in shopping for the best number, something I always preach, as at least three of the pushes likely could have been converted into wins with some line shopping.
Favorites of seven or more points are an impressive 22-1 straight up in this round, with the lone loss being Duke in 2002, but are just 12-11 against the point spread. Those with some nerves of steel may want to look into some moneyline wagers, although it's always nerve-wracking to be risking $400 or $500 to win $100, even if past history shows doing so would have made a nice profit.
Perhaps the best bet over the past nine years has been to take the lower-seeded teams when they are favored or underdogs of 3.5 points or less, as those teams are 16-10 straight up and 17-8-1 against the point spread. What those numbers suggest is that only twice has the point spread come into play, so if bettors like a small underdog taking them on the moneyline may be the way to go.
Sweet 16 Totals
Those bettors who enjoy wagering on overs/unders have several trends to help them, as well, as the under has come in more often that not, especially when the line is low. In those games in which the total was 129 or lower, there have been eight unders and just one over, so when the oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring game, it generally happens.
It's important to remember that just because something has happened in the past, it's not guaranteed to happen again, but in the world of sports gambling, history often does repeat itself and should be factored into any upcoming wagers.
