2011 Kentucky Derby Preview
The Run For the Roses will take place on Saturday and a full field of 20 horses are entered in the race, which has more question marks than most other Derbys.As of Friday morning, the big question is will Uncle Mo run or not? His connections have said if the horse is not 100 percent he won't run and the rumors going around the Churchill Downs press room and elsewhere are saying he isn't. But can they be believed?
Others, such as Bob Baffert, believe there's nothing wrong with Mo and this is just a ploy to get better odds on the horse and owner Mike Reploe is known to like to visit the betting windows.
Track conditions are another concern, as there is a 30-percent chance of rain in Louisville on Friday and a 50-percent chance of thunderstorms on Saturday, so it's still unknown if the track will be muddy or not.
The betting favorite right now is Nick Zito's Dialed In, who is at 4-1 and may go off at slightly higher odds, as it appears to be a wide open field. Others who are getting plenty of attention are No. 1 Archarcharch, No. 15 Midnight Interlude and the wise guy horse is No. 19 Nehro, although the wise-guy selections haven't fared too well in recent history. Still Nehro is probably one to have in your exotics.
If the track is muddy, Calvin Borel's Twice the Appeal gets moved up a bit, while Midnight Interlude and Soldat also would appear to have a better chance with an off track.
Of the longshots, Master of Hounds is a bit of an enigma, as the European finished sixth in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile race at Churchill Downs last year, while Comma to the Top is receiving generous odds after losing by a head to Midnight Interlude in the Santa Anita Derby.
Santiva, Twice the Appeal and Soldat all have some points in their favor and are likely to go off at generous odds.
Right now, there are too many questions to make a solid stand on the Derby, especially without knowing what type of odds we're going to see on Saturday.
Uncle Mo is the most talented runner in the field, but his status makes it hard to make him a play the day before the Derby. If he runs, depending on the track conditions, and is going off at 5-to-1 or better, he has to be considered for a play.
Right now, we'll give Uncle Mo a strong lean and finalize our Derby plays on Saturday.
