Sticking to Winnable Games
NOTE: This is going to be the main premise in my book "Becoming a Winning Gambler" which will be out in the spring of 2012. This isn't really an excerpt, but rather an idea that I thought was valuable enough to share with you here.When it comes to gambling all games can be placed in one of two categories: there are those games which can be beat and there are those which can't. If we stick solely to those games which can be beat, our odds of coming out ahead increase dramatically. If we constantly play those which can't be beat, we'll pay for it in the long run.
Games Which Can Be Beat
Of all the different types of gambling opportunities that are available, there are very few that can be beat in the long run. This list would include blackjack, poker, horse/dog racing and sports betting. That's it. And you won't become a winner just by sticking to these games. It will require some work, practice and studying.The fact that blackjack can be beat is common knowledge and is also a godsend for the casinos. People play blackjack because of that fact without even taking the time to learn proper basic strategy, which will reduce the house advantage to roughly 1%, let alone learning to count cards, which will move the edge in their favor slightly.
For sports bettors, a solid understanding of the basics, how the point spread is made, finding value and realistic results are good places to start and there are some very good books on the market about poker and horse/dog racing.
Games Which Can't Be Beat
The list of games which can't be beat is pretty extensive and I'm sure I'll miss a few, but this list would include: slot machines, craps, baccarat, roulette, pai gow, video poker, the lottery, bingo and keno. Just because a game can't get beat, does not mean that it's not possible to come out ahead on occasion. But if you play these games long enough, you'll end up losing in the long run. That isn't an opinion, it's a mathematical fact.Unfortuntely, many of the games which can't be beat are among the most fun to play and also offer the opportunity to collect a lot of money for a small wager. But the windfalls from these games are few and far between and the odds are that you will give back what you won and then some all in pursuit of the next big win. I'm as guilty as anybody on that front.
One of the worst things that can happen to any gambler is to win big at one of these games. That may sound ridiculous, but the probability is they will stick to these types of games in the future and eventually the odds will catch up to them. Besides, how much fun can it be to sit there and try to grind out $25 or $40 an hour playing blackjack or poker when you've previously won $1,000 or $2,000 with just a push of a button?
If I owned a casino, my hope would be that everybody who came through the doors for the very first time would walk away $500 to $1,000 richer. Why? Because the odds are pretty good that I would get that all back and then some over the long run.
It's interesting to note that of the four games games listed in the beatable section, sports betting and blackjack are the only two where a Las Vegas casino will tell you to take your business elsewhere. Casinos don't bar winning poker players, as their money comes at the expense of other card players, nor do they show a winning horse/dog bettor the door, as their winnings come from the pari-mutual pool, but if you force the casino to reach into its pocket often enough, as is the case with sports betting and blackjack, they will politely, or at times not so politely, ask you to go elsewhere.
Likewise, I've never seen anybody who hit a jackpot at a slot machine asked to leave immediately afterwards, as the casino is hoping that player remains in the house long enough to give some, if not all of their winnings back before making an exit.
So the biggest factor that determines if you'll come out ahead or not, isn't the drop of the dice, the turn of a card or the stop of a reel. It's determined by which games you play.
