Hedging and Scalping Your Bets
One of the biggest mistakes many novice sports bettors make relates to hedging and scalping their bets. While the bettor does guarantee themselves a profit regardless of which team wins, all they are really doing is minimizing their profits most of the time.
The biggest misuse of hedging and scalping comes in the form of a series bet, such as the team to win a playoff series, or to win a championship.
We'll use the 2009 Stanley Cup Playoffs as an example, and look at the New Jersey vs. Carolina series.
The Devils went off as a -115 favorite to win the series, while the Hurricanes were -105 to win the best-of-7 game match-up. After the Devils won the first game, the adjusted series price became New Jersey -220, Carolina +180.
For those who bet on the Devils -115, the opportunity to turn around and wager on Carolina +180 may seem like a good deal. If they wagered $230 to win $200 at the start of the series, they could now wager on Carolina +180 and be guaranteed to make money.
The ideal situation would be to wager $150 to the Hurricanes and the bettor will come away with an $50 profit if the Devils win, as they would win the original $200 bet and lose the $150. If the Hurricanes come back and win the series, the bettor would win $270 on the Hurricanes and lose $230 on the original Devils bet for a profit of $40.
What the bettor fails to realize, is that they are much better off in the long run sticking with the original bet on New Jersey and riding out the Devils in the series. The bettor now has a -220 favorite at -115, which is a huge overlay and will yield a healthy profit in the long run.
Planning to Hedge
Many bettors will make a series bet with the intent of betting the other way depending on what happens, but while this may seem like a smart move, it too, eats into profits and yields a lower return on investment.
In our example above, a bettor who planned on buying back the Devils bet after the first game would have been better off risking $70 to win $50 on New Jersey to win the first game. The bettor's money would not be tied up nearly as long and there is much less being wagered to return a similar amount.
There are times when buying back a portion, or all, of your bet makes sense, especially when you have high odds in your favor. For example, if you bet $100 on Team A at +5000 to win the Super Bowl, you should certainly hedge your wager enough to guarantee a profit of at least $1,000.
Injuries during a series are another time when it might make sense, but for the most part, sports gamblers would be better off ignoring hedging and scalping opportunities and stick with their original wagers. The bettor obviously thought the team was worth a wager in the first place and now betting against them doesn't make much sense.
