Hedging Playoff Series Bets
One of the best wagering opportunities in the NBA, NHL and baseball playoffs are the series bets that are offered. Odds are adjusted after each game, so you don't necessarily have to place a series wager prior to the start of the first game.You can jump in at any time, although betting before a series starts may give you the best price and the best opportunity to hedge a bet. The key is deciding which series bets you want to hedge and which ones to keep.
The first round of the 2009-10 Stanley Cup Playoffs have been a dream for hedging series wagers, as each series was 1-1 after the first two games, and in some cases, the underdog won the first game, allowing for hedgers to act quickly.
When you hedge a series bet on an underdog, you're simply looking to take the original favorite at lower odds than the original price of the underdog, but many times you can get the original favorite at plus money as well, as long as the original underdog takes the series lead at some point.
An example would be the 2009-10 NHL playoff series between Philadelphia and New Jersey, where the Devils were -235 and the Flyers were +195. After the Flyers won the first game in New Jersey, the odds became -110 for each team.
Having taken the Flyers at +195 as one of my main playoff series wagers, I could simply take New Jersey for the same amount as my initial bet to guarantee that the worst I could do was break even or take New Jersey for a larger amount of 1.5 times the series bet to guarantee a profit.
To illustrate, say I had bet $100 on the Flyers to win $195 on the series. After Philadelphia won the opener, I decided to put $110 on New Jersey to win $100. If the Flyers won the series, I would win $195 and lose $110 for a profit of $85. If the Devils had come back and won, I would have won $100 on the Devils series bet and lost $100 on the Flyers series bet to break even.
If I wanted to guarantee a small profit after the first game, all I would have had to do is wager $154 to win $140 on the Devils to win the series. If New Jersey won, I would have won $140 and lost $100 on the Flyers bet for a profit of $40. If the Flyers won the series, I would have won $195 and lost $154 for a profit of $41.
Hedging on Favorites
The same concept will work with the favorites of any series, but the key now is to take the underdog at better odds than you gave with the original favorite.If you have a series wager on Team A -200 and Team A rolls to a victory in the first game, you may be able to come back and take Team B +300. And as with the underdogs, you can wager to guarantee a profit or wager an amount so that the very worst you can do is break even.
If we wanted to ensure that we broke even, we would simply wager the same amount on the underdog as we would win on the favorite. If we placed a $200 series wager on Team A to win $100, after the first game we would simply bet $100 on Team B to win $300. If Team A goes on to win, we win $100 on our Team A series bet and lose $100 on the Team B series bet.
If Team B were to come back and win the series, we would lose our $200 series bet on Team A, but win $300 on our Team B series bet for a profit of $100.
To guarantee a profit after the first game, we would then wager $75 on Team B +300. If Team A went on and won the series, we would win $100 on our original series bet and lost $75 on our Team B series bet for a profit of $25. If Team B were to rebound and win the series, we would lose our original $200 series bet on Team A, but win $225 on our Team B series bet for a profit of $25.
Anytime you have a series bet, be sure to look at the adjusted odds as the series progresses. You may find a new price that is simply too good to pass up and wager a bit on the other side.
