Betting Must-Win Games
As the regular season winds down in any sport, a number of teams are faced with "must-win" situations if they want to advance to the playoffs. To a lesser extent, there are also teams playing that must win to clinch home advantage or a higher seed.
While bettors can be sure of receiving a top-notch effort in the game, the oddsmakers realize that bettors are more likely to back the team that must win, so bettors will generally receive the short end of the odds.
In short, there is no real advantage to betting on or betting against teams that fall into must-win situations, as the extra effort is typically negated by the inflation of the odds. Still, there are several things bettors can look for when faced with these games.
Here is where it pays off for bettors to do a little reading and look at what the opposing coach says about the upcoming game. If the team that is facing the "must-win" team has already clinched a spot in the playoffs and has nothing to gain, they may be a bit more inclined to rest their starters more, even though there is a bit of an unwritten rule about trying to win when playoff spots are involved.
Another situation that doesn't get much attention, but bears watching, is when the team that must win will play the same opponent in the playoffs that they are playing now. Many times the team that has clinched a playoff spot will try to prove to the "must-win" team that even if they make the playoffs, they have no chance when the post-season starts. These teams will often make good wagers, especially first-half wagers, as many times the higher-seeded team will make its statement in the first half and play its reserves more in the second half.
There are also situations when teams that must win play opponents that have already been eliminated for playoff consideration. Sometimes these teams enjoy nothing more than playing spoiler, while other times these teams have already packed it in and are eagerly awaiting the end of the season. A quick look at the most recent games of the eliminated team may give you a clue of which category they are likely to fall under.
The smart thing for bettors to do is look at these games from all angles and then proceed if they believe they have an advantage.
