Finding Value With NFL Futures
One of the biggest misconceptions about professional gamblers is that they are all top-notch handicappers. They aren't. But they do one thing far better than the average bettor. They know how to shop for lines.
Getting the best available betting lines can often make the difference between a winning season and a losing one. Those who bet for a living are quick to acknowledge that fact. If you want to see the value in shopping for lines, look no farther than the NFL futures market for odds to win the 2009 Super Bowl.
A number of smart bettors will typically avoid placing futures bets, as the house typically has an estimated 30- to 50-percent advantage over bettors. But for those willing to shop for the best odds, those percentages can be drastically reduced.
What we'll do here is look at the odds to win the 2009 Super Bowl from four well-known sportsbooks - Bodog, Intertops, Olympic, and Sportsbook. We'll compare the odds for each team and point out which sportsbook the player should wager at.
NOTE: Odds can change at any time depending on bets received by the sportsbook. You usually get the best odds by acting early, as most sportsbooks will lower the odds on one team, without raising the odds on others to make up the difference.
Odds to Win the 2009 Super Bowl
Arizona Cardinals 30.5-1 to 50-1Three of our four sportsbooks have the Cardinals at 50-1 to win the Super Bowl, while Olympic has Arizona at just 30-.5-1 to bring home the big trophy, so obviously, Arizona should be bet at Intertops, Sportsbook, or Bodog.
Atlanta Falcons 100-1 to 165.5-1
None of the four sportsbooks gives the Falcons much of a chance to win the Super Bowl and its hard to blame them, as Atlanta figures to be a few years away from even competing for the playoffs. The worst odds on the Falcons are the 100-1 offered at Sportsbook, while bettors who place a bet at Olympic will get the best odds, 165.5-1.
Baltimore Ravens 50-1 to 75-1
The Baltimore Ravens are another team that shows a good-sized difference in odds depending on which sportsbook a wager is placed through. Sportsbook offers the best odds on Baltimore at 75-1.
Buffalo Bills 48.5-1 to 80-1
The best place to bet the Buffalo Bills is Intertops, where bettors can get a lofty 80-1, while Sportsbook and Olympic are both offering the Bills at 50-1 or less. There is no reason to wager on Buffalo at either of those two books.
Carolina Panthers 40-1 to 52.5-1
Bodog and Sportsbook are both listing the Panthers at 40-1, while Intertops lists Carolina at 50-1 and Olympic is offering 52.5-1 odds. The spread range isn't nearly as great for Carolina as it is for a number of other teams.
Chicago Bears 35-1 to 40-1
There is a general consensus among all for of the sportsbooks here, as the odds difference is minimal for Chicago. The Bears' biggest challenge could be making the playoffs, as Green Bay and Minnesota also figure to be in the hunt for the division title and Wildcard spots.
Cincinnati Bengals 40-1 to 60-1
Those who like the Bengals should look to Sportsbook where they can find a hefty 60-1 on Carson Palmer and the boys. The Bengals are one of the most inconsistent teams in the league, but if they put things together, who knows?
Cleveland Browns 25-1 to 33-1
The Browns are getting a bit of respect among all of the different sportsbooks listed. The price range is fairly narrow, with Intertops having the best odds at 33-1.
Dallas Cowboys 6-1 to 8-1
The Cowboys are the favorites to make it to the Super Bowl from the NFC, but are only about the fourth choice to win the Super Bowl, as San Diego and the Colts have comparable odds. Intertops is where you'll find 8-1 odds.
Denver Broncos 40-1 to 50-1
The Broncos have fallen on some hard times and are now considered a sizable longshot to do anything in the postseason, if they get there at all. Sportsbook has the team at 50-1.
Detroit Lions 52.5-1 to 80-1
The Lions are one of the biggest longshots on the board, as the team appears to be in transition once again. Detroit is 80-1 at both Intertops and Sportsbook.
Green Bay 20-1 to 35.1
The Packers are still expected to do well without Brett Favre, as Aaron Rodgers is ready to take the helm. He has done well in spot duty and has patiently waited for his chance. Olympic is where Cheeseheads should look to wager with odds of 35.5-1.
Houston Texans 60-1 to 80-1
The Houston Texans are another team still looking for an identity, thus the lofty odds, which are pretty well deserved. Intertops is the place to bet the Texans at 80-1.
Indianapolis Colts 7-1 to 7.85-1
There's minimal difference in the odds on the Colts, as all four sportsbooks have the team between 7-1 and 7.85-1. The Colts, along with the Chargers, are expected to be the toughest test for New England. Olympic is where you can find 7.85-1 on Manning and crew.
Jacksonville Jaguars 10.15-1 to 14-1
The Jaguars are getting a good amount of respect from the sportsbooks. There is a bit of a price range on the team, with Intertops offering the best odds at 14-1.
Kansas City Chiefs 90-1 to 145.5-1
The Chiefs are another team that has fallen on hard times as of late. The once potent offense has dropped quite a bit, while the defense has gotten better, but not nearly enough. Olympic is where you'll find 145.5-1 odds.
Miami Dolphins 90-1 to 145.5-1
The Dolphins were clearly the worst team in the NFL last season, so it isn't surprising to see them listed here. Only the Falcons are listed as a longer shot than Miami. Olympic is the book offering the 145.5-1 odds.
Minnesota Vikings 18-1 to 25-1
The Minnesota Vikings are getting a bit of respect from the sportsbooks and have the potential to be a very dangerous team if Tarvaris Jackson continues to show the improvement expected of him. Intertops is where you'll find the 25-1 odds.
New England Patriots 3-1 to 3.55-1
The Patriots are once again favored to win the Super Bowl, as well they should be. The price range is pretty slim for the Pats, with Olympic narrowly offering the best odds at 3.55-1, with Sportsbook right behind at 3.5-1.
