Betting Early Season College Football
When betting early season college football games, it's important to remember that last year's team is not the same one taking the field this year. Personnel can change a great deal in the course of one season, so be sure to spend some time looking over the number of returning starters each team, as well as the number of returning letterman.
The betting public is typically a bit slow to recognize to year-to-year changes that often take place with college football teams and informed bettors can use this to their advantage. The number of returning starters and lettermen will usually give an indication if a team will improve or fall during the upcoming season, but a number of bettors will remember the team how it was a year ago.
Generally, it's easier to predict a team that will be down a bit due to graduation losses than it is to predict a team that will improve because of the number of players returning. This is simply because the players who have graduated are known quantities in that you know what they were capable of doing. Predicting the amount of improvement in a player from one year to the next still involves a bit of guesswork.
Not All Positions are Created Equal
Of all the positions in college football, none are more important than the quarterback, so many people will give extra weight to a returning starter at this position. This makes sense, as a college quarterback will have to run the ball effectively if on a running team or throw the ball well if in a passing team. Additionally, the difference between a starting quarterback and the second-string signal caller can be enormous. There have been many college football teams that have seen a season go down the tubes after losing its quarterback. (Witness the 2007 Oregon Ducks after Dennis Dixon was injured.
The offensive line is more important than many people believe and a team returning at least four of its five linemen should also get a little extra consideration. The difference between starting linemen and backups is often large and it usually takes a year for the line to work well as a unit.
On the defensive side of the ball, a team returning its linebacking core is often in good shape, as it generally takes time for them to work well as a unit. It also takes time for linebackers to learn how to read the college game, so veterans usually have an advantage over freshmen or sophomores.
Coaching Changes
Any time there is a coaching change with a program bettors should be a bit wary of betting that team right out of the gate. While the new coach may actually be better than the one he replaced, it's important to remember that the new coach is going to be stuck with a bunch of players the previous coach recruited. If the two coaches run a similar offense, that may not be much of a problem, but when the new coach plans to install a completely different offense, there may be growing pains for a few years until the new coach has the personnel to run that offense.
That doesn't necessarily mean to run out and wager against teams with new coaches, but a smart bettor may be able to pinpoint a team struggling with its new system.
An assistant coach who gets promoted to head coach is generally less likely to change the team's systems than a coach hired from another program, so it's a good idea to note where a new coach comes from and read on up on any perceived changes that will take place.
Revenge Games
Early in the season is when most teams are playing non-conference games and quite a few of these games will have one team vastly superior to the other. The underdog team is almost always the road team and is basically making the trip for the sake of the money they are guaranteed by the home team.
But occasionally the team which was supposed to lose will pull off the big upset and stun the home crowd. When this happens, you can bet the home team will do its best to make amends the following year if the two teams are scheduled to meet again. Don't be afraid to lay the points with the home team in these types of rematches.
Lookahead Games
Many times a solid conference team can get caught looking ahead a bit to its opening league game, especially if playing a much weaker team. For the weaker team, a game against a quality program is a big deal and even though they may be outmatched, you can count on them giving their best shot.
A big favorite with a tough conference game the following week could very well have spent plenty of time practicing for next week's opponent and less time worrying about who is on tap today. Pay attention to not only this week's schedule, but take a look at next week's schedule as well.
Betting college football early in the season can be profitable, but bettors shouldn't be afraid to look at certain aspects of a game from several different perspectives. Factors that may not work later in the season may lead to several solid advantages in the early stages of a new year.
