Mar 10 2008
Early 2007 NFL Point Spread Analysis
After three weeks of the 2007 NFL season,several betting trends have emerged that deserve attention. Although there is no guarantee that the trends of the first three weeks will continue throughout the season, they do deserve to be watched, and possibly taken into consideration when determining whether or not to place a bet.
Year of the Dog
So far it’s been a good year for underdogs, with them covering 25 of 41 games (61%). Home underdogs stand a solid 8-4 for the season, while away underdogs are 17-12. The home underdogs have won five of those 12 games straight up, while the points came into play in the other three contests, so there may not be much advantage to betting them on the moneyline.
Totals Analysis
In the first week of the season, 11 of the 16 games went under the bookmaker’s posted total, but the overs have gone 19-11 since then, including an amazing 11-4 in the third week. The overs now have a 24-22 advantage on the season.
An interesting statistic is that on games where the posted total is 34.5, or lower, the under is a perfect 3-0 on the season, which is something to consider when a total appears to be too low.
This trend bears watching for the next few weeks and is something that should be included in your handicapping, but shouldn’t be the sole reason for placing a wager.
Who’s Covering and Who’s Not
Pittsburgh, New England, Green Bay, Houston, Tennessee, and Dallas have all gone 3-0 against the point spread in the early going of the season, while the Arizona Cardinals are 2-0-1.
On the other end of the spectrum, St. Louis, New Orleans, Baltimore, Denver, and Chicago have each gone 0-3 against the point spread through the first three weeks of the season.
It will be interesting to see how soon the oddsmakers adjust for a fast or slow start.
