Betting the NFL Playoffs
The National Football League's second season is upon us and even though the playoffs are among the most difficult games to predict, many people, including those who don't typically gamble on sports, will be getting in on the action.
One reason the playoffs generally pose problems for football bettors is that the point spreads are pretty sharp, as the oddsmakers only have a few football games each day to create a line for, instead of the usual 16, along with a slew of college games.
NFL Playoffs 2002-2006
One of the first things to do in looking at the upcoming playoff games is to look at past results and look for any key trends or angles that appear. While the past doesn't necessarily predict the future, it's never a bad place to start.
Over the past five years worth of NFL playoffs, the favorites have covered the point spread 26 times, while the underdogs have gotten the money 29 times, which is pretty much what would be expected. Favorites of a touchdown or more are 8-8 against the point spread.
During the same five-year span, 25 games games have gone over the total, while 29 have gone under the total and there was one push, so there is a slight advantage to betting the unders, as you would expect, since the public tends to bet the overs.
One interesting piece of information is that in games where the posted over/under is 44 or more, the overs are 12-11 over the five-year span, but just 3-8 the last two years. This trend bears watching this season to see if it continues.
Two Profitable Angles
The five-year study did point to two trends that have paid off over the years, which are somewhat related to each other, in that they will both point you to the same team.
The first is to wager on road favorites, as they have gone a perfect 3-0 during the past five years. It isn't often that a lower-seeded team will be made a favorite on the road, but you shouldn't shy away from them. Right now, the Jaguars are 2.5-point favorites at Pittsburgh and could very well be a play.
The second trend, and the one that was the most surprising, is that the lower-seeded teams have posted an impressive 34-20 record against the point spread, including the five Super Bowls.
It isn't often that you will come across a 63-percent trend that selects every game, and it is something that should be considered, as betting the lower-seeding teams has shown a profit for each of the five seasons. This will generally put bettors on the underdogs, but will also include the road favorites, as the team's road designation makes it clear they are the lower-seeded team.
For the 2007 NFL playoffs the seedings are as follows:
AFC:
1. New England
2. Indianapolis
3. San Diego
4. Pittsburgh
5. Jacksonville
6. Tennessee
NFC:
1. Dallas
2. Green Bay
3. Seattle
4. Tampa Bay
5. New York Giants
6. Washington
It will be interesting to see how the lower-rated team angle plays out in the 2007 playoffs, and is something that should be included in your handicapping arsenal. Good luck!
NOTE: The lower-seeded teams went 8-5 against the point spread in the 2007-08 playoffs, including the New York Giants over New England in the Super Bowl.
