Betting the First Round of the 2009-10 Stanley Cup Playoffs
The real NHL season is scheduled to begin on Wednesday, as the Stanley Cup playoffs begin. Four of the eight series will start on Wednesday, while the other four will get underway on Thursday and Friday.Betting each series can be a bit tough, as the favorites tend to be slightly over-valued, but there is also a reason why they have been made the favorites to begin with in the first place.
We'll use the current odds from The Greek for the basis of this article.
NOTE: If you're new to the world of sports betting, I would suggest reading Understanding Money Lines first.
2009-10 NHL Playoff First Round Series Prices
San Jose -400Colorado +320
The Sharks are prohibitive favorites against a surprising Colorado team that faltered a bit down the stretch. Still, few people had the Avalanche making the playoffs this year.
The Sharks and their playoff problems are well documented, but this remains a quality team. Nabakov has something to prove after his meltdown in the Olympics and his past playoff failures.
The major problem is that I'm not about to lay that type of price on any series, even if I do believe the Sharks will take this one. A lean to San Jose, but that's all.
Chicago -400
Nashville +320
Nashville isn't getting much credit here, but the Predators are a team more than capable of stealing this series. Chicago finished just 12 points in front of Nashville, something that doesn't suggest such a large price.
Yes, the Blackhawks are an exciting team that many people have reaching the Stanley Cup Finals, but this is simply a case of a team being favored by too much.
I'll make a small play on Nashville to begin the series, with the definite potential to buy the bet back if the Predators can win one of the first two games.
Vancouver -250
Los Angeles +200
The Kings finished with just two fewer points than Vancouver and actually allowed fewer goals during the season. What prevents me from making a play on Los Angeles is the Kings' lack of playoff experience.
Vancouver has a huge advantage at home, but were just a .500 team on the road. If the Kings can steal one of the first two games, this could be an interesting series.
I'll lean to the Kings, but nothing more, although I'll likely have several game bets on the series.
Detroit -190
Phoenix +165
This very well could be the best of the Western Conference first round match-ups, as the Red Wings are finally healthy and on a roll, but face a Phoenix team that has been riding a hot goalie and had the third-highest amount of points during the year.
The Red Wings typically enjoy a large following in Phoenix, making it difficult to tell who the home team is at times, although a number of snowbirds have probably driven back up to Michigan and it's likely more Phoenix fans will attend the playoffs than do a regular season game.
I absolutely hate to lay that kind of price with Detroit, but am a little hesitant to back Phoenix until I see how they handle the pressure of playoff hockey.
Washington -625
Montral +475
There isn't much to say about this series. Washington is the largest favorite of the first round and deservedly so. But laying those kind of odds is usually asking for trouble.
New Jersey -235
Philadelphia +195
When it comes to professional spots, there is just one team that I absolutely live and die with and that happens to be the New Jersey Devils. I've traveled hundreds of miles to see them play, have a closet full of Devils jerseys and the chance to see them three or four times each year was something I considered before making my recent cross-country move.
That said, my money will be on the Flyers here. Philadelphia dominated New Jersey during the regular season and is the type of team that can give the Devils trouble.
It's a bet that I'd be more than happy to lose, or at least buy back at more favorable odds on New Jersey. If the teams split the first two games, I'll certainly be looking to do so.
Buffalo -165
Boston +145
Much like the New Jersey series, here we have a case of one team - the Bruins - who played well against its opponent in the regular season, which is why the odds are relatively low on Buffalo.
Miller has played great this year for the Sabres, but will meet a goalie who has put up equally impressive numbers in Rask. I'm still hesitant to back a rookie goaltender, however, so will likely wait to see what happens in the first game before plunging in.
Pittsburgh -285
Ottawa +235
The Penguins haven't played all that well at times this season, but still are the No. 4 team in the Eastern Conference. It's hard to go against Pittsburgh, especially at that price against an underrated Senators squad.
Many people are expecting the Pens to step it up a notch once the playoffs begin, but asking a team to suddenly turn on the switch is often asking for disaster.
The great thing about the playoffs is that most sportsbooks will have adjusted series prices as the series moves forward. As you can tell, that's something we'll look to take advantage of to a greater extent as the games are played.
Aside from Nashville and Philadelphia, I could see Boston, Ottawa, Los Angeles and Phoenix as teams worth playing, provided you were going to be doing so for the primary purpose of buying your wager back at more favorable odds in the future.
