2007-08 October NHL Betting Primer
Because of the liberal movement given to players in the recent bargaining agreement, early season NHL betting can be difficult. With so many players changing teams in the off-season, using statistics from the 2006-07 season isn’t advised.
Still, October can be a profitable month betting the NHL, as long as the bettor is patient and watches for certain situations, as well as takes public opinion, which influences the line, into consideration.
Certain teams will be overpriced early in the season, based on their signings in the offseason, while others will be underpriced and should offer good betting value. This isn’t to say that you should blindly bet against overpriced teams or wager on an underpriced team in every game, but instead use caution if you plan on betting the other way.
In addition, players aren’t always in their best shape, so pay particular attention to back-to-back games and lengthy travel.
Overpriced Teams
- The New York Rangers made a splash in the offseason, signing Scott Gomez and Chris Drury as unrestricted free agents, which instantly moved them into the status of being Stanley Cup contenders. While the Rangers are likely to be a better team than they were a season ago, it’s unlikely they will offer any betting value in the early part of the season, and will be overpriced by the oddsmaker.
- The Philadelphia Flyers are in much the same boat as the Rangers, having signed several high profile players, most notably Daniel Briere and Kimmo Timonen, and have much higher expectations this season after last year’s disaster. The Flyers are a better team than they were last season, but it may be a bit of a stretch to label them as Cup contenders.
The Flyers are unlikely to offer any betting value in the early going.
Underpriced Teams
- The Los Angeles Kings didn’t have any of the sexy big name signings, like the Rangers or the Flyers, but they did add several solid pieces to their team, including Michael Handzus, Ladislav Nagy, and Tom Pressing. With a number of young players having gained experience last season, the Kings should be a better team than a year ago, but aren’t getting much attention on the national scene.
- The Edmonton Oilers are coming off a disastrous year, just one season removed from a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals, and have drawn plenty of criticism for Kevin Lowe’s attempt to sign restricted free agents. It’s worth noting that the Oilers were decimated by injuries to their defensemen last season and the team addressed that issue with the acquisitions of Sheldon Souray and Joni Pitkanen. Don’t be surprised to see the Oilers return to the playoffs.
- The Buffalo Sabres were hard-hit by free agent defections, losing Drury, Briere, and Danius Zubrus, among others, but the team’s strength the past few years was its ability to roll out a number of lines that could score. Several players will need to step it up a bit and the Sabres still have a solid netminder in Ryan Miller, so their predicted fall from grace may not materialize quite as expected.
- Many people are more than willing to write off the New Jersey Devils after their losses of Gomez and Brian Rafalski, but don’t be so quick to discount the men in red and black. Andy Greene is more than capable of filling Rafalski’s skates, while the signings of players, such as Zubrus, Karel Rachunek, and Aaron Asham will help.
The loss of Jamie Langenbruner to a hernia injury for the first two months of the season is a minor blow, but will be taken into consideration in the line.
The Devils still dress one of the all-time greats in Martin Brodeur, giving them a chance to win on a nightly basis, and new coach Brent Sutter is the perfect fit for the team. New Jersey should offer solid betting value in the early going.
Scheduling Factors
It’s no secret that a number of players don’t get into peak game shape until November, so pay close attention to scheduling and travel factors during the first month of the season. Back-to-back games are typically more taxing on players until their conditioning is at its best.
While teams playing three games in four nights is something that should be factored into one’s handicapping all season long, it often takes on a bit of added importance in the first month of the season. Be extremely cautious if betting on a team in this situation.Tread lightly and pick your spots carefully when betting the NHL in October and you could add a few extra dollars to your bankroll.
