NBA Back-to-Back System
One of the hardest things for any sports handicapper is to change with the times. Many trends and systems that worked well in years past are no longer successful today, which is one reason why many of the successful bettors and sports services from 20 years ago are struggling today.The Monday Night Home Underdog System in the NFL is probably the best-known example of an old system that has seen a bit of a reversal, yet many old-time bettors remember the days where the home underdog covered 110 out of 166 games between 1970 and 2000 and automatically grab the points with the home team in any Monday night game.
But the same system that was successful for 30 years went just 21-37 ATS between 2001 and 2010 and those who couldn't shake the old ways saw their bankroll diminish on a constant basis.
There was a similar system for the NBA that had a successful run, although it wasn't quite on the same level as the Monday Night Underdog. Still, it was one that a number of bettors used and had solid results with.
The system was simple and it was to merely bet against any road favorite who was a road favorite the previous day. The results were slightly better if the road favorite covered the spread the night before.
The premise behind the system was that it was difficult to win on the road and you would have a tired team, since they played the night before, going up against a weaker opponent and there was the good potential for a bit of a letdown, while the home underdog would want to give a good showing in front of the home fans.
System Between 2008-09 and 2010-11 Seasons
Since the start of the 2008-09 season, road teams favored for the second straight night on the road are a solid 58-42-1 against the spread, which goes against the premise of the system as it was used. Those handicappers who were unable to change their ways suffered a loss of 21.8 units during the three-year period.Looking at just the past three years, we'd see another trend develop and that is in relation to totals. These same games saw the over go an identical 58-42-1 against the number, which is a healthy 58 percent.
Of the two, I'd tend to give more weight to the trend regarding the over, as tired NBA teams will often spend a little less energy on defense.
Using the concept of teams saving energy on defense, I looked at games with a total of 200 or over and found that the overs were a strong 34-18-1 against the number, while the road favorites were 32-20-1 against the spread.
If we raise the total to 210, the number of games goes down quite a bit, although the winning percentage increases, as the road favorites were 10-4-1 against the spread and the overs were 11-4.
Long Term Results
To make sure we were onto something with our results using the higher totals filter, I went back to the start of the 2000-01 NBA season and looked to see how teams have fared.Our road favorites were just 161-172-8 against the spread, so we've seen a reversal over the past three seasons in how often these teams cover the number. Totals were 179-159-3, which is slightly better than break-even for the over, but nowhere near our 58% of the past three seasons.
The next step was to look at our high total filters and we'd see that the road favorites were 66-55-4 against the spread, which is 54.2%, but totals were 73-50-1, which is 59.3% for the over.
Using totals of 210 and higher as our base gave us solid results both in terms of the road favorites (25-15-3 ATS) and the over (28-15).
So what we're looking for are road favorites who were road favorites the previous night and the total is 200 or greater. We'll take the over with a lean to the favorite. Perhaps wager one-fourth what you do on the over on the favorite.
If the total is 210 or greater, we'd increase our wager on the over, as well as put a little more on the road favorite.
This is definitely something to keep an eye on in the 2011-12 NBA season.
