More on NBA Back-to-Back Games
With the shortened NBA season for 2011-12, there are going to be fewer days for teams, as the league crams a 66-game schedule into the books. Fewer days off naturally means more back-to-back games for the teams and all teams will be required to have at least one stretch of three games in three nights.Due to the abbreviated schedule, much of my early research into the NBA has concentrated on the back-to-back aspect and what, if any effect does it have on straight bets and on totals.
The first system we looked at, which we simply called the NBA Back-to-Back System dealt with teams being favored for the second consecutive night. The system we're about to look at also pertains to favorites, but we're not interested if they were favored or not in their previous game, only that they are favored today.
NBA Peaks and Valleys
One reason the NBA is so popular with fans is its unpredictable nature. A team can look like world-beaters one night and completely stink up the arena the next.While that's great for the casual fan, it can make things a bit more difficult for the basketball handicapper who would like nothing more than to see teams perform at a consistent basis on a year-round level.
But handicappers have to expect teams to follow exceptional performances with a downer and rebound after a dismal game with a solid performance and that will be the foundation of this system.
The System
The situation we're looking for is to find a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back situation and is favored, provided they had a dismal offensive showing the previous night. For our purposes we'll use 80 points or less, as the definition of a dismal showing.Since the start of the 2007-08 NBA season teams in this situation have gone a solid 33-22 (60 percent) against the spread, but these same teams have also seen the majority of those games going over the total, as the over is 31-22-2 in those same games.
Any time we are introduced to a new system the first question we must ask ourselves is, "Does it make sense?"
In this case the answer is easily yes, as we have a team expected to win, which is why they are favored, who is looking to make amends for a disappointing effort in its previous game. It's not surprising that these teams cover the spread more often than not and also go over the total, as the team no doubt wants to prove its last outing was a fluke.
Big Favorite Filter
The above results consist of all favorites regardless of the point spread and we can increase our winning percentages by adding an additional requirement to the favorite. Teams favored by five or more points are 17-9 against the point spread, while these same games have seen the over go an impressive 18-7-1 since the start of the 2007-08 season.By requiring the team to be favored by at least five points, we're getting a team that is superior and has the ability to run up the score if they so desire. The results indicate that these teams come out with a chip on their shoulder and want to prove to everybody that they are better than they showed in their previous game.
While the condensed schedule may have an impact on how these teams perform, it's definitely a situation worth keeping an eye on during the season, especially when we have a team favored by five or more points.
