2011 College Basketball Betting Stats
One of the best ways to predict the future is to look at the past. That holds true in plenty of different areas, with sports betting being no exception. What we'll do here is look at point spread results in a number of different categories from the 2010-11 season and look for any advantage we might find to use in the upcoming season. Since there were roughly 3,700 games with linesn them, one season gives us a decent sample size and there's really no need to go back farther.The results presented here were obtained from this year's Stat Attack For College Basketball 2011-12 program and gives you an idea of some of the things you can do with it.
Regular Season Point Spread Trends
For the purpose of this article, we'll look at regular season games only, as later on we'll take a look at conference tournaments and then post-season tournaments.Home teams were 1677-1768-77 against the spread in 2009-10, which equates to 48.7%, meaning there is slight value to taking visitors, but not nearly enough to show a flat-bet profit. Home favorites were 1147-1209-49 against the spread (48.7%), while home underdogs were 436-443-23, which is 49.6% against the number. Remember, these are the consencus closing lines. Those willing to do a little bit of shopping for the best number would likely see an increase in their percentage, especially on the games that were recorded as a push.
Regular Season Home Favorites
Now, we'll look at home home favorites did when favored by a certain amount of points:Favored by 20.5 or more: 58-68-1 (46%)
Favored 15 to 20 points: 112-130-7 (46.3)
Favored 10 to 14.5 points: 240-283-8 (45.9%)
Favored 6 to 9.5 points: 309-293-13 (51.3%)
Favored 3 to 5.5 points: 271-274-15 (49.7%)
Favored 1 to 2.5 points: 157-161-5 (49.4%)
The first thing that jumps out is the poor record of home teams that were favored by double digits. Home teams favored by more than 10 points were a combined 410-481-16 against the point spread, which translates to 46% against the number. Betting $100 against all home double-digit favorites last year would have produced a profit of $3,000.
I wouldn't start betting against all home double-digit home favorites, however, but I would use caution when that's who I liked and certainly wouldn't hesitate to back a double-digit underdog if that's the way my handicapping pointed.
Regular Season Home Underdogs
Now, we'll look at the same breakdown, but only for home underdogs instead of favorites.
Underdog of 20.5 or more: 3-3-1 (50%)
Underdog of 15 to 20 points: 16-15 (51.6%)
Underdog of 10 to 14.5 points: 44-50-2 (46.8%)
Underdog of 6 to 9.5 points: 105-115-6 (47.7%)
Underdog of 3 to 5.5 points: 161`-157-7 (50.6%)
Underdog of 1 to 2.5 points: 107-103-7 (51%)
Road favorites between 6 and 14.5 points were slightly above the break-even point combined, but there are no real definitive edges, such as we found by betting against the double-digit home favorites.
Layoffs
The last thing we'll look at is how teams perform in several different areas regarding layoffs. We;ll break them into short layoffs (play next day or one day off), average layoffs (two to three days between games) and long layoffs, which is four or more days between games.The average layoff is what most teams are used to, so it's no surprise that teams perform best in that role:
Short Layoff: 835-850-29 (49.6%)
Average Layoff: 1576-1527-78 (50.8%)
Long Layoff: 839-876-37 (48.9%)
While much is made about a team possibly being tired, it's interesting to note that teams playing with little rest performed slightly better than teams playing with an extended break.
Since teams with an average layoff perform better than teams with long or short breaks, we'll look at how teams with average layoffs did against teams in the other two situations.
Teams with an average layoff were 111-98-7 (53.1%) against teams with a short layoff and 313-276-13 (53.1%) against teams with an extended layoff. While it's hard to recommend wagering on all those teams, it's definitely something to keep in mind.
While this article dealt with strictly side wagers, we'll look at the same type of breakdown for totals in 2011 College Basketball Over/Under Stats.
