Betting Early Season College Basketball
There are two distinct theories when it comes to betting college basketball. Some bettors will jump in right at the start, believing this is the best time to get an advantage over the oddsmakers, who are busy with football, the NBA and NHL.The other theory, naturally, is to wait until some games have been played so that the bettor can see how the teams actually perform on the court.
It's difficult to say that one theory is more correct than the other, but instead is usually a matter of personal preference and the amount of time a bettor is willing to spend studying the teams before the season has started.
Personally, I prefer to wait until some games are in the books before jumping in, but that's just me.
Those who want to get started right away can do several things to increase their chances of coming out ahead for the month of November.
Knowing Returning Players
The number of returning players is obviously key to early season basketball and no position is more important in college basketball than the point guard. They are often called the quarterback of the team and their importance in college basketball is roughly the same as the signal-caller in college football.The second most important player in college basketball is a dominating big man for the sole reason that not all teams have a presence in the paint. The player doesn't have to be a center, but can be a power forward who plays down low.
A shooting guard or forward would rank next on the list. Most teams have at least one, so this position ranks a little lower than the first two.
Far too much is made of the number of returning players and not enough about the quality of the players coming back. It's the old quantity over quality question.
A bad basketball team returning all five of its starters will most likely be a bad basketball team once again. They'll just be a year older.
Line Moves
Line moves should be given a little more attention in the early season, especially in those games that aren't televised or involve marquee teams. If the line moves in an early season match-up between San Jose St. and Eastern Washington University you can be sure that it's not coming from the public.Line moves occur in two ways. There's the slow gradual change that takes place during the course of the day or there's the one sudden jump of several points. In this case, the one sudden move bears closer watching than the gradual move, as the one big jump usually indicates one person's valued opinion, whether they be an individual bettor or a sports service.
The line will change a bit in the big televised games, as more bettors will make a wager regardless of their knowledge of the two teams involved, so these line moves should be given less consideration.
Specialize
I have long been a proponent of specializing in one or two conferences and those who do should have a decent advantage in the early season. Ideally, one team close to where you live and a medium-sized conference elsewhere. Depending on your location, you may be able to find two conferences fairly close to your residence.While bettors have always listed the fat that there are too many teams for the oddsmakers to follow, it also stands to reason there are too many teams for the bettors to follow.
Sports Services
Finally, a bit about sports services in college basketball. A number of them will claim that college basketball is their best sport because there's so many teams that it's impossible to for the sportsbooks to post an accurate number on each game.Many will claim outlandish winning percentages or anything else they think might separate you from your money. But if you see a service claiming 65% winners or something like that, you should run away as fast as you can.
The most respected college basketball service around is Right Angle Sports. Their college basketball totals will move the line three to four points when they are released in the afternoon. Yet, over the past four seasons, RAS's winning percentage is 57.55, which is pretty darn good.
No other college basketball sports service will move the line like RAS, no matter how much advertising they do or how well known the handicapper is. That should tell you quite a bit.
If you decide to plunge in right away, best of luck. Myself, and thousands of others will be joining you in three or four weeks.
