Hot Home Underdogs
Baseball is supposed to be the game of "The Boys of Summer" although there are times that description could be applied to college football teams. When those times arise, the players don't look upon them too favorably. The only thing that could be worse than running around in hot weather is running around in hot weather while wearing football gear.It's true that different people in different parts of the country will have different perceptions of what is considered hot. Here in Florida it's not considered hot until in reaches 90 degrees, while elsewhere people living in Las Vegas or Phoenix would think of us as lightweights, just as we do the people complaining about the weather when it gets into the 80s.
But when you're in football gear, anything 80 degrees or warmer can be considered hot, especially since temperatures are always warmer at field level.
Since the start of the 2006 season, college football road favorites of 10 or more points are just 9-19 against the spread when playing in temperatures 80 degrees or higher. It's easy to see the rationale behind that dismal figure.
Road favorites of at least 10 points are obviously much superior teams and when it's extremely hot, the team is more likely to be concerned with just getting out of there with a win than what the margin of victory is. Players and coaches are likely to be interested in getting in the air-conditioned locker room than they are adding another score at the end of the game and keep the clock running with safe plays up the middle.
This isn't taking into account certain road teams come from cooler climates and may be affected by the weather even more than a team which is no stranger to warmer weather or that artificial surfaces are generally even hotter than grass fields.
It definitely is something to consider before placing a wager.
