Betting the 2010 NFL Conference Championships
The NFL's version of the Final Four will take place on Sunday, as the NFL Conference Championships will take place. The two winners advance to the Super Bowl.From a bettor's standpoint, these types of games are usually the toughest to handicap. The lines are extremely accurate and there is very little value in either the sides or the totals.
Looking at previous results from the Conference Championships, shows that the home teams are 9-11 against the spread over the past 10 years, while 13 games have gone over the total, six have gone under and there has been one push.
The over trend is even more pronounced over the past five years, as the over is 8-1-1 in that time span.
New York Jets at Indianapolis
The Colts are solid 7.5-point favorites over the Jets and the total has dropped from 41 to 39.5. The betting public is on the Colts and the under, as the Colts opened as 7-point favorites.Peyton Manning may be the face of the Colts' franchise, but the team played pretty good defense, especially at home this year, as the team held six of seven regular season opponents to 17 points or less. (I'm excluding Week 16 against the Jets, as the Colts basically treated the game as an exhibition contest).
The Jets have held their last eight opponents to 15 points or less, including the playoffs.
The Jets led the NFL in rushing, while the Colts were 24th against the rush, so expect the Jets to try and exploit that weakness. As long as the Jets can keep the game close, I'd expect them to stay with what has worked for them so far, which are the short, safe passes and running the ball.
The under has lost a bit of value, coming down from 41, but is probably the right side. But instead of taking under 39.5, I'll play the first half under 20 (-115 or -120) with the reasoning being that the Jets are likely to keep things close and can stick with their game plan. Still, not a play I'm too excited about.
Minnesota at New Orleans
The Saints are favored by 3.5 points and the total is 53. The wagering on this game has been a bit odd, as New Orleans opened 4-point favorites and went to 4.5 for several days, before dropping back down. Several sportsbooks still have New Orleans favored by four, so be sure to shop around before placing a wager.The top two teams in total offense will meet in the Superdome in what should be an entertaining game. Both squads can light up the scoreboard, while the Vikings are the better of the two defensively.
The fact that all four of Minnesota's losses came on the road has been talked about a great deal, so there's really nothing to add here.
Once again, Minnesota is banged up along the defensive line, which is the same trouble they had down the stretch, and that can only hurt against New Orleans. But by the same token, if the Saints don't get pressure on Favre, he could easily duplicate his performance of a week ago.
After watching the Saints give up a 70-yard run on the first play of scrimmage last week, they can expect to see a fair amount of Adrian Peterson, although the Vikings will be content to continue throwing if having success.
This is a game for watching more than it is for wagering, but when in doubt, it's usually best to take the underdog, which is what I'll do here.
