Performing the Actual Game Predictions
By now, the majority of the time consuming work is done, but we still have more work to do. This section will show how the actual game predictions are calculated.
- The ninth step of the system is to add the road team's offensive percentage to the home team's defensive percentage and divide by two.
- The 10th step of the system is to add the home team's offensive percentage to the road team's defensive percentage and divide by two.
The 10th step calls for us to take Detroit's offensive percentage (1.23) and add Atlanta's defensive percentage (1.18) to get a total of 2.41. Dividing this figure by two, gives us a total of 1.21. This is Detroit's performance figure.
- The 11th step calls for us to add the road team's points scored to the home team's points allowed and divide by two.
- The 12th step calls for us to add the home team's points scored to the road team's points allowed and divide by two.
The 12th step calls for us to take Detroit's points scored (22.33) and add Atlanta's points allowed (24.67), giving us a total of 47. Diving by two gives a total of 23.5. This is Detroit's base offensive number.
- The 13th step is to multiply the road team's base offensive number by its performance figure and subtract 1.5 points. The reduction in points is for playing on the road.
- The 14th step is to multiply the home team's base offensive number by its performance figure and add 1.5 points. Naturally, the addition in points is for playing at home.
In the 14th step, we take Detroit's base offensive number (23.5) and multiply by Detroit's performance figure (1.21) and we get a total of 28.44. Adding 1.5 points will give us a new total of 29.44, which is the predicted number of points Detroit will score.
Therefore, our prediction in the game is Detroit 29.44, Atlanta 15.91. Our predicted line is Detroit by 13.53 points.
Look for at least a five-point differential between the point spread and the predicted line before making a wager. In this case, you would wager on the Lions if they were favored by 8.5 or fewer points, while the Falcons would be a play if Detroit was favored by 19 or more points.
The system may seem a bit overwhelming at first, but once you have done it several times, it quickly becomes pretty simple.
For the first four weeks of the season the system used the points scored and allowed from the previous season, after which time the current year's points are used. For this reason, the system should perform best during the middle to the end of the season.
While the system is a bit time consuming, it is a good indication of how teams are performing offensively and defensively throughout the course of the season.
